Mauricio Pochettino leaves Chelsea by mutual consent

[Ham]

2 minutes ago, Gurj SS said:

I agree there's a balance to be found, I do think it's harsh to say fans are taking a baby's approach, they just care about their club which has always fought back (in particular the last 20 years under a previous ownership) regardless of what they were up against; bad didn't follow bad, our downs were changed to ups; and even when not done quickly we were able to see signs of hope. Poch has given us nothing yet, while it may be harsh to tear him a new one, it would be just as unfair on members to say he has done a decent job let alone a good one.

I think it comes down to the trust or hope we place in the manager and the squad. I'll be honest, Poch wouldn't be my choice of manager; not exactly sure who would be but he wouldn't have been on the shortlist, we need a serial winner or someone with winning mentality at all cost to install a culture of being robust and gritty in the club, Poch might have got close but he has spent a career failing. Harsh I know but it's the truth, his Spurs team at best were the plucky underdogs catching teams out, and very far from being special regardless of how far they got in the CL, Poch's best season in the Prem was him losing the race against two nobody teams and finishing 3rd. Honestly a lot of the players wouldn't have been at the club either, if someone said we'd be spending the money we have (hate talking about the money but its difficult to ignore such an amount) I would hope there would be better, more experienced and ready made players. I sort of get the whole young players and long contracts, but people forget winning makes money too, and we could easily have got top class ready made players who would have got us into Europe and kept us there within 12 months, and then built upon that by implementing clever additions of young players at bargain prices; we've paid an arm and a leg for some who still have big question marks if they'll ever make it as a top footballer let alone at a top club.

In regards to having no chance of beating Villa, I think it'll be 1-2 and with a good performance I'd call that a step forwards; can we win? Yes of course because it's football, but I think it's fair to say the way things are going we could also lose very badly against a team who is scoring freely when our best chances are scrambling around in the box trying to get a decent shot off.

Thanks for the thoughtful response.

I keep saying it but at 5 games in, time will tell whether the experiment has worked. We shall reconvene. 

I should clarify one thing though. I wasn't calling moaning Chelsea fans babies. 

There is a phrase "to throw the baby out with the bath water". In other words, tearing everything up and starting again rather than just tweaking.  

Finally, the Real McDroy will be in touch soon regarding the "tearing him a new one" comment. Watch this space. 

 

[Gurj SS]

6 hours ago, Mark Kelly said:

It's hard to argue with any of the many statistics that back Pochettino up , however , let me ask you a question or two.

Colwill , better as a centre half or better as a full back?

Chilwell , better as a fullback or better as a winger?

Enzo , better in the pivot or better further forward?

 

Colwill is a better CB, not a LB, we could play silva at RB but it doesn't mean we should; I actually think Poch plays Colwill LB because he doesn't rate him as a CB, and honestly if that's the case I'm with him on that one because I think he needed another loan to develop his defending (he looked shaky in pre-season). But regardless he should never play LB when there's another option available.

Chilwell is a LB, he can play at LWB but that's about as far it goes, never a LW; the only thing left wing about him is the word left in left footed.

Enzo is a number 8, free role is his best role, think Deco, Veron, Xavi. Put a number 6 next to him and let him roam around and dicate the game.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Gurj SS

[Gurj SS]

30 minutes ago, Ham said:

Thanks for the thoughtful response.

I keep saying it but at 5 games in, time will tell whether the experiment has worked. We shall reconvene. 

I should clarify one thing though. I wasn't calling moaning Chelsea fans babies. 

There is a phrase "to throw the baby out with the bath water". In other words, tearing everything up and starting again rather than just tweaking.  

Finally, the Real McDroy will be in touch soon regarding the "tearing him a new one" comment. Watch this space. 

 

I hope it really does work, it has to really doesn't it otherwise it'll be a new era for the club; just not one we'll like. Hopefully another 5 games time we'll have more positives to discuss.

Ahh got ya now, I think we could have done with you saying that to the new owners on their first day in office.

Now you've pointed it out too, thanks for not doing me any favours lol

[Dwmh]

11 hours ago, martin1905 said:

 

Villa (h) W

Fulham (a) D

Burnley (a) W

Arsenal (h) L

Brentford (h) W

Tottenham (a) D

City (h) L

Newcastle (a) D

Brighton (h) D

United (a) W

 

So 3 more easy games then 7 tough ones where winning will be extremely difficult and losing (London clubs, Brighton and united) embarrassing.
I'd suggest then that Poch will either get kicked out this week end or will last till United on Dec 6th.
Everton, Sheff U, Wolves, Palace, Luton, Fulham m

 

 

37 minutes ago, Ham said:

Finally, the Real McDroy will be in touch soon regarding the "tearing him a new one" comment. Watch this space. 

Why would anyone not protest?  In terms of modern sensibilities it goes way way beyond acceptibility.  
Do you not have an opinion?
 

[Mark Kelly]

7 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

 

 

Why would anyone not protest?  In terms of modern sensibilities it goes way way beyond acceptibility.  
Do you not have an opinion?
 

He really is back 😉

[Ham]

12 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

So 3 more easy games then 7 tough ones where winning will be extremely difficult and losing (London clubs, Brighton and united) embarrassing.
I'd suggest then that Poch will either get kicked out this week end or will last till United on Dec 6th.
Everton, Sheff U, Wolves, Palace, Luton, Fulham m

 

 

Why would anyone not protest?  In terms of modern sensibilities it goes way way beyond acceptibility.  
Do you not have an opinion?
 

Yeah.  I've always thought the phrase to be fine. I've always said that. Doesn't bother me. 

"I could kill you sometimes". 

"The boss has totally f*cked me".

I don't take any of these literally. 

[JaneB]

46 minutes ago, Ham said:

Yeah.  I've always thought the phrase to be fine. I've always said that. Doesn't bother me. 

"I could kill you sometimes". 

"The boss has totally f*cked me".

I don't take any of these literally. 

Personally I don’t like *that* phrase.  Can think of better ways to express something ☹️

[Ham]

14 minutes ago, JaneB said:

Personally I don’t like *that* phrase.  Can think of better ways to express something ☹️

Droy is the only person who goes straight to prison-themed scenarios on this subject when in almost all dictionaries, urban and otherwise, the phrase refers to beating someone up so badly they are left with another as a verbal threat . Also references to being stabbed.  Nothing about what Droy gravitates to every single time the phrase is used, year on year. 

Droy has convinced some on here that it's something it's not. 

 

 

[JaneB]

9 minutes ago, Ham said:

Droy is the only person who goes straight to prison-themed scenarios on this subject when in almost all dictionaries, urban and otherwise, the phrase refers to beating someone up so badly they are left with another as a verbal threat . Also references to being stabbed.  Nothing about what Droy gravitates to every single time the phrase is used, year on year. 

Droy has convinced some on here that it's something it's not. 

 

 

Whatever.  I can make up my own mind and I just don’t like it.  Personal opinion.

Maybe I’m too much of a *laydee* 😏

[Dwmh]

 

22 minutes ago, Ham said:

Droy is the only person who goes straight to prison-themed scenarios on this subject when in almost all dictionaries, urban and otherwise, the phrase refers to beating someone up so badly they are left with another as a verbal threat . Also references to being stabbed.  Nothing about what Droy gravitates to every single time the phrase is used, year on year. 

Droy has convinced some on here that it's something it's not. 

Stab him a new what?  Button hole?

[kev61]

11 hours ago, martin1905 said:

 

I would love someone though to tell me what they think we are doing well, without using stats

The reason Martin is they can't!.The geeks of stat's can make Bakayoko look good.

When have you ever heard a stat's geek tell you with any emotion what they have just witnessed after a game?

Again they can't because they are too busy making charts and over analysing things that the average fan can see with the naked eye.

Sorry but it drives me effing crazy.

I'm not saying stat's have no part in the game,but jesus there is no substitute for what we see on the pitch with our own eyes.

[kev61]

12 hours ago, Mark Kelly said:

It's hard to argue with any of the many statistics that back Pochettino up , however , let me ask you a question or two.

Colwill , better as a centre half or better as a full back?

Chilwell , better as a fullback or better as a winger?

Enzo , better in the pivot or better further forward?

 

Good question mark, but I will have to consult the dossier I've been compiling on passes completed,how many km's they have ran and what boxer shorts they wear in any given game(if indeed they wear boxer shorts).

[xceleryx]

14 hours ago, martin1905 said:

I would love someone though to tell me what they think we are doing well, without using stats, people tried using them for Potter.

At the end of the day it's such a subjective topic to discuss with words alone, which is often why stats are used as a reference in support. They help provide the necessary data to reaffirm an opinion and give it more credence. 

[east lower]

I’m sort of with @kev61 on stats, probably not all the way but agree with the watch first and then look at stats afterwards to check your feelings as alluded to (I think) by @xceleryx.

That would work for some area’s of the game. However examples of where stats might mislead - Michael Ballack when playing for us would top or be near distance covered but just couldn’t do it fast enough when with us, wonderful footballer with the ball. Worked for his ‘late’ arrival into the opposition box, problem was he couldn’t have been ‘early’!

Another, passing stats - The modern game and voguish way is the passing out from the back and every move (almost) begins with a defender. They just hit 5-15 yard passes sideways, I could have done most of that, what does it matter if Silva, Dunk or even Maguire (who’s far from the best footballer) get near the top of the passing stats table, because generally I don’t see the correlation between that stat and success on the pitch.

Now, forward passes mean something. Personally I’d make my team play mostly two-touch football in passing movements and insist on forward passes wherever possible. Too much time in modern games is spent with defenders with the ball at their feet and not enough ball time with the players who metaphorically speaking get the fans out of their seats excitedly.

Ranting now but what is the big thing with ‘expected goals’? Only thing that matters is how many times you put it in the net. We don’t need ‘XG’ to tell us we haven’t been able to do that well enough for two seasons now, or do we? It won’t tell us that strikers make a near post and far post run when the balls coming in from wide areas with midfielders filling spaces behind. It won’t tell Harry Kane to go to the area just past the back post, where he’s scored countless goals. That’s down to awareness and to a part coaching.

Edited September 20, 2023 by east lower

[Thiago97]

27 minutes ago, east lower said:

I’m sort of with @kev61 on stats, probably not all the way but agree with the watch first and then look at stats afterwards to check your feelings as alluded to (I think) by @xceleryx.

That would work for some area’s of the game. However examples of where stats might mislead - Michael Ballack when playing for us would top or be near distance covered but just couldn’t do it fast enough when with us, wonderful footballer with the ball. Worked for his ‘late’ arrival into the opposition box, problem was he couldn’t have been ‘early’!

Another, passing stats - The modern game and voguish way is the passing out from the back and every move (almost) begins with a defender. They just hit 5-15 yard passes sideways, I could have done most of that, what does it matter if Silva, Dunk or even Maguire (who’s far from the best footballer) get near the top of the passing stats table, because generally I don’t see the correlation between that stat and success on the pitch.

Now, forward passes mean something. Personally I’d make my team play mostly two-touch football in passing movements and insist on forward passes wherever possible. Too much time in modern games is spent with defenders with the ball at their feet and not enough ball time with the players who metaphorically speaking get the fans out of their seats excitedly.

Ranting now but what is the big thing with ‘expected goals’? Only thing that matters is how many times you put it in the net. We don’t need ‘XG’ to tell us we haven’t been able to do that well enough for two seasons now, or do we? It won’t tell us that strikers make a near post and far post run when the balls coming in from wide areas with midfielders filling spaces behind. It won’t tell Harry Kane to go to the area just past the back post, where he’s scored countless goals. That’s down to awareness and to a part coaching.

Just on the whole stats debate. I would not be a frequent user of stats, they are an additional and not to be used as a full body of work imo.

But……they clearly do have huge merit in the game.  You only have to look towards huge gambling syndicates who are betting on football. They have been successful in the last decade through the development of stats. Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham, have both made fortunes through betting on a combination of data modelling and stats in football.

If they were meaningless when compared with the naked eye, well these guys and hugely far east syndicates simply wouldn’t make it pay. Data is quite simply their edge in the market. 

[ROTG]

12 minutes ago, Thiago97 said:

Just on the whole stats debate. I would not be a frequent user of stats, they are an additional and not to be used as a full body of work imo.

That's your job application with TBSD in the bin 😀

[east lower]

40 minutes ago, Thiago97 said:

Just on the whole stats debate. I would not be a frequent user of stats, they are an additional and not to be used as a full body of work imo.

But……they clearly do have huge merit in the game.  You only have to look towards huge gambling syndicates who are betting on football. They have been successful in the last decade through the development of stats. Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham, have both made fortunes through betting on a combination of data modelling and stats in football.

If they were meaningless when compared with the naked eye, well these guys and hugely far east syndicates simply wouldn’t make it pay. Data is quite simply their edge in the market. 

Not being argumentative but I'm not interested in how many free-kicks or how many corners or how many bookings or however else people who actually bet and lose good money on that sort of stuff (if they didn't lose then the chaps you're quoting wouldn't be billionaire's).

I read somewhere on here that Villa were 3/1 to beat us on Sunday. If someone could show me the stats/data they used to come up with that, I'd be interested in seeing it. More like even money on form. 

How you win football matches is about players and then tactics. Some stats may support that.

😉

Edited September 20, 2023 by east lower

[xceleryx]

17 minutes ago, east lower said:

How you win football matches is about players and then tactics. Some stats may support that.

Which in this day and age still tend to involve data and stats. Whether its data taken that's identified your opposition start fast, are vulnerable between x and y minutes of matches, create their chances through one particular avenue over another, or even if it's better to select a certain player over another for a specific quality they have that could be deemed more beneficial. 

Obviously stats and data aren't the be all and end all of things, and they certainly need to be used as a supporting measure, but whether people like it or not they play a hugely influential part in the game now. If anyone thinks it's any different at teams like Man City, Real Madrid, or whoever else may be in for a bit of a shock. 

Was catching up on That Peter Crouch Podcast last week after falling quite a bit behind, Steve Sidwell was on there and talking about his move to Chelsea under Mourinho, and just how prepared Jose was as a manager- including putting together this huge book of information about what he wanted etc - and that was 15 years ago or so.

The way I see it is people tend to like stats when it suits them. If were were flying in the league right now, people would be lapping up more of the data and stats out there to emphasise how good we've been. When things aren't going well though, you'll often seen the other end of the spectrum where people use data and stats to draw attention to our problems. 

As with everything going on right now there's a middle ground to it all. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by xceleryx

[Mark Kelly]

4 minutes ago, xceleryx said:

 

As with everything going on right now there's a middle ground to it all. 

Absolutely.

I think that there is definitely a place for analysis in the game but how knowing Villa always concede if a chance is created in the eighth minute helps anyone when the players are generally too busy to know what minute of the game they're in anyway I'm not sure  ( ours perhaps not , I grant you ) 

What is definitely worth analysing is movement on set pieces , passing channels , how they like to transition out of defence  , who's prone to a rash tackle in or around the box , cough cough Tyrone Mings cough  etc .

I saw a copy of Makelele's game notes once that AVB had prepared  for Mourinho prior to us playing Newcastle and posted it on here years ago and it was full of the information that I have mentioned above which I found very interesting at the time. 

It's always worth keeping at the back of one's mind that "Statistics can be used to prove anything" . 

[Sciatika]

13 minutes ago, east lower said:

Not being argumentative but I'm not interested in how many free-kicks or how many corners or how many bookings or however else people who actually bet and lose good money on that sort of stuff (if they didn't lose then the chaps you're quoting wouldn't be billionaire's).

I read somewhere on here that Villa were 3/1 to beat us on Sunday. If someone could show me the stats/data they used to come up with that, I'd be interested in seeing it. More like even money on form. 

How you win football matches is about players and then tactics. Some stats may support that.

😉

When I was a young (and naive) software developer, I attended a conference on new software products for the sell side. I had not had much involvement, and a broker was trying to explain it to me. He told me that one company produced an analytical tool that would generate sector asset allocation advice. The algorithm was confidential and sold without warranty. What they did was take geographical weather data and 'convert' that to allocation advice. They then searched historical data and adjusted their algorithm to get the results in the historical market record. They published the results to show it worked. Lots of brokers bought the product. But, I replied, that won't work because there is no rational basis for that. He told me I had missed the point. The purpose of the tool is to give brokers an excuse to contact their investors. They tell them they have a new tool, have run an analysis on the investor's portfolio and that they might be long in, say, US Pharma. For the investor, sometimes it works and sometimes not and generally, the sums involved are small. The point is that brokers make money from activity, not holdings.

I sometimes wonder if the betting companies do something similar. Provided they adjust the odds so that it hedges the bets they have according to the market, then they will win or be very close. As people place bets, the odds are reduced. However, by having competitive odds and, in some cases, 'special offers', it encourages activity across the whole range of products supplied by the bookie.

[Thiago97]

1 hour ago, east lower said:

Not being argumentative but I'm not interested in how many free-kicks or how many corners or how many bookings or however else people who actually bet and lose good money on that sort of stuff (if they didn't lose then the chaps you're quoting wouldn't be billionaire's).

I read somewhere on here that Villa were 3/1 to beat us on Sunday. If someone could show me the stats/data they used to come up with that, I'd be interested in seeing it. More like even money on form. 

How you win football matches is about players and then tactics. Some stats may support that.

😉

I think you are getting the wrong end of the stick with my point. Whilst Benham has spun off with his own betting firm, I am not talking about bets through these avenues.

I am talking about bets placed by Bloom / Benham and associates . These bets are struck in huge volumes and virtually all overseas. We are talking six figure sums being placed into markets in Asia and the Far East. These boys don’t make these bets here in the Uk, because they would never get the volume and scale of bet accepted here. 
The selections/bets placed have been honed through stats, data modelling and algorithms. The naked eye contributes virtually zero to these selections. 
 

I’m not saying you have to be interested by this. I am just pointing out that it is hugely influential in this world, the fact they employ many clever people, make significant sums of money , and are feared throughout that betting world. Well it can only suggest that stats are clearly of quite crucial importance.

They won’t be betting on corners, free kicks or niche markets like this either. It will be far more standard and straight forward markets, probably focused on what is called Asian handicap markets. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Thiago97

[Thiago97]

24 minutes ago, Sciatika said:

When I was a young (and naive) software developer, I attended a conference on new software products for the sell side. I had not had much involvement, and a broker was trying to explain it to me. He told me that one company produced an analytical tool that would generate sector asset allocation advice. The algorithm was confidential and sold without warranty. What they did was take geographical weather data and 'convert' that to allocation advice. They then searched historical data and adjusted their algorithm to get the results in the historical market record. They published the results to show it worked. Lots of brokers bought the product. But, I replied, that won't work because there is no rational basis for that. He told me I had missed the point. The purpose of the tool is to give brokers an excuse to contact their investors. They tell them they have a new tool, have run an analysis on the investor's portfolio and that they might be long in, say, US Pharma. For the investor, sometimes it works and sometimes not and generally, the sums involved are small. The point is that brokers make money from activity, not holdings.

I sometimes wonder if the betting companies do something similar. Provided they adjust the odds so that it hedges the bets they have according to the market, then they will win or be very close. As people place bets, the odds are reduced. However, by having competitive odds and, in some cases, 'special offers', it encourages activity across the whole range of products supplied by the bookie.

Yes, they are doing something very similar. They most certainly hedge large bets struck, most often against the betting exchanges. The large high street organisations employ traders who will be tasked with trying to turn a profit during a sporting event, monitoring bets coming in and their liabilites on those markets.

The smaller independent bookmakers who you would see on a racecourse for example. They have also been forced down this route in the last 10-15 years too, mainly due to how powerful and influential the Betfair exchange and market has become. These guys who probably use a bit more skill and nous in terms of hedging, where the guys working at Coral, Ladbrokes etc etc would be more reliant upon data and volume to make their decisions.

The art of good bookmaking has generally been lost though. These large organisations do not really want anything to do with people who win or display knowledge on a regular basis, so their tactic is to make life as difficult as possible for these people to place bets.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Thiago97
Apologies for going off topic here - though it is intrinsically linked to data

[Thiago97]

1 hour ago, east lower said:

Not being argumentative but I'm not interested in how many free-kicks or how many corners or how many bookings or however else people who actually bet and lose good money on that sort of stuff (if they didn't lose then the chaps you're quoting wouldn't be billionaire's).

I read somewhere on here that Villa were 3/1 to beat us on Sunday. If someone could show me the stats/data they used to come up with that, I'd be interested in seeing it. More like even money on form. 

How you win football matches is about players and then tactics. Some stats may support that.

😉

On this bold point. Because stats do not really have any influence over this low activity market price.

The reason you are getting 3/1 on villa is because it is away at Chelsea in a 3 horse race. Now on the face of things, it is a value price I agree. However, put yourself in the layers positions (ie Ladbrokes, Bet365 or whoever) you know that you are not going to see a huge influx of big bets for Villa to win. It simply wont attract too much activity and potential liability.

What will attract activity and liabilites is multiple accumulators that many 'Mug' punters place on many of the well know established teams through Europe (generally speaking the heavy favourites). These bets are high volume and low stake, but if punters land them, then they return very large payouts.  If you start offering Chelsea in home games at say 3/1 and they happen to win, alongside Liverpool, Bayern, Barca etc........you are facing huge payouts because that 3/1 price mixed in alongside prices of 4/9 is more than enough to start taking their liability to maximum payout territory, and likely a few times too as many punters place these kind of bets every week.

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Thiago97

[Ham]

37 minutes ago, Thiago97 said:

On this bold point. Because stats do not really have any influence over this low activity market price.

The reason you are getting 3/1 on villa is because it is away at Chelsea in a 3 horse race. Now on the face of things, it is a value price I agree. However, put yourself in the layers positions (ie Ladbrokes, Bet365 or whoever) you know that you are not going to see a huge influx of big bets for Villa to win. It simply wont attract too much activity and potential liability.

What will attract activity and liabilites is multiple accumulators that many 'Mug' punters place on many of the well know established teams through Europe (generally speaking the heavy favourites). These bets are high volume and low stake, but if punters land them, then they return very large payouts.  If you start offering Chelsea in home games at say 3/1 and they happen to win, alongside Liverpool, Bayern, Barca etc........you are facing huge payouts because that 3/1 price mixed in alongside prices of 4/9 is more than enough to start taking their liability to maximum payout territory, and likely a few times too as many punters place these kind of bets every week.

 

Yes ok but I suppose my question to you is, should I bet to win or each way on my annual £10 Grand National punt? 

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Ham

[east lower]

8 minutes ago, Ham said:

Yes ok but I suppose my question to you is, should I bet to win or each way on my annual £10 Grand National punt? 

 

Depends on the stats (boom, boom) 😂

But to keep things on topic, Poch has definitely got to start getting some positive results as the natives are starting to revolt and as a few predicted, rightly or wrongly him being ex-Rottenham provide him less tolerance. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by east lower