Mauricio Pochettino leaves Chelsea by mutual consent

[boratsbrother]

re betting.

A few weeks ago there was a two horse race with the favourite going off at 1-25, and it lost. The joint highest odds on loser in the history of British Racing. 

 

[east lower]

1 hour ago, xceleryx said:

Which in this day and age still tend to involve data and stats. Whether its data taken that's identified your opposition start fast, are vulnerable between x and y minutes of matches, create their chances through one particular avenue over another, or even if it's better to select a certain player over another for a specific quality they have that could be deemed more beneficial. 

Obviously stats and data aren't the be all and end all of things, and they certainly need to be used as a supporting measure, but whether people like it or not they play a hugely influential part in the game now. If anyone thinks it's any different at teams like Man City, Real Madrid, or whoever else may be in for a bit of a shock. 

Was catching up on That Peter Crouch Podcast last week after falling quite a bit behind, Steve Sidwell was on there and talking about his move to Chelsea under Mourinho, and just how prepared Jose was as a manager- including putting together this huge book of information about what he wanted etc - and that was 15 years ago or so.

The way I see it is people tend to like stats when it suits them. If were were flying in the league right now, people would be lapping up more of the data and stats out there to emphasise how good we've been. When things aren't going well though, you'll often seen the other end of the spectrum where people use data and stats to draw attention to our problems. 

As with everything going on right now there's a middle ground to it all. 

As @Mark Kelly says I think the analysis that is used in game preparation is of the type that Eric Dyer can't mark at corners and has a tendency to go near-post to and is weaker when attacking his right side (reality being he's crap all over!) and teams do this or that in certain scenarios. 

I've seen a few of these reports that the AVB's of the world used to prepare.

I just fail to see the use of some of them, it's like the statisticians are promoting the use of statistics for the purposes of continued and I've no doubt well paid employment.

[Mark Kelly]

7 minutes ago, east lower said:

As @Mark Kelly says I think the analysis that is used in game preparation is of the type that Eric Dyer can't mark at corners and has a tendency to go near-post to and is weaker when attacking his right side (reality being he's crap all over!) and teams do this or that in certain scenarios. 

I've seen a few of these reports that the AVB's of the world used to prepare.

I just fail to see the use of some of them, it's like the statisticians are promoting the use of statistics for the purposes of continued and I've no doubt well paid employment.

XG? What does that actually boil down to other than "you should have scored and you didn't , where's my £10k ?"

[My Blood Is Blue]

23 hours ago, xceleryx said:

Mauricio Pochettino’s Chelsea in crisis? They’re actually playing quite well.

In basic terms, Chelsea’s start to the 2023-24 Premier League campaign has been something of a disaster.

Five matches into the new season, Mauricio Pochettino’s side have collected five points and sit 14th in the table. They’ve only won once, and even that was probably their simplest fixture of the season, at home to a Luton Town side who are yet to collect a single point.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Yes, Chelsea have a very expensively assembled squad. Football coverage is now overwhelmingly obsessed with the transfer market; success or failure on the pitch is immediately considered in relation to spending. Here, the focus is simply on whether Chelsea have played well or not.

And, on the whole, they have.

Full article below by Michael Cox (Zone Marking)

https://theathletic.com/4874009/2023/09/19/chelsea-playing-well-no-panic/

Relatively positive articles are being written about us... we really are crap! 

[Dwmh]

5 hours ago, east lower said:

That would work for some area’s of the game. However examples of where stats might mislead - Michael Ballack when playing for us would top or be near distance covered but just couldn’t do it fast enough when with us, wonderful footballer with the ball. Worked for his ‘late’ arrival into the opposition box, problem was he couldn’t have been ‘early’!

Yes, Ballack was a Box and Box player.  He'd do a bit of support striker, we'd score a goal, and he'd be back besides Maka outside our own box.  But never both in the same minute.

4 hours ago, Sciatika said:

When I was a young (and naive) software developer, I attended a conference on new software products for the sell side. I had not had much involvement, and a broker was trying to explain it to me. He told me that one company produced an analytical tool that would generate sector asset allocation advice. The algorithm was confidential and sold without warranty. What they did was take geographical weather data and 'convert' that to allocation advice. They then searched historical data and adjusted their algorithm to get the results in the historical market record. They published the results to show it worked. Lots of brokers bought the product. But, I replied, that won't work because there is no rational basis for that. He told me I had missed the point. The purpose of the tool is to give brokers an excuse to contact their investors. They tell them they have a new tool, have run an analysis on the investor's portfolio and that they might be long in, say, US Pharma. For the investor, sometimes it works and sometimes not and generally, the sums involved are small. The point is that brokers make money from activity, not holdings.

I sometimes wonder if the betting companies do something similar. Provided they adjust the odds so that it hedges the bets they have according to the market, then they will win or be very close. As people place bets, the odds are reduced. However, by having competitive odds and, in some cases, 'special offers', it encourages activity across the whole range of products supplied by the bookie.

I'm sure you are right.  Not a gambler but have done sales side as salesman and analyst.  It is about speaking the guys in the day or two before they start dong big trades.  Any reason, including in my day opera or alcohol.  Compliance nowadays makes the process more complex.

3 hours ago, Thiago97 said:

Yes, they are doing something very similar. They most certainly hedge large bets struck, most often against the betting exchanges. The large high street organisations employ traders who will be tasked with trying to turn a profit during a sporting event, monitoring bets coming in and their liabilites on those markets.

The smaller independent bookmakers who you would see on a racecourse for example. They have also been forced down this route in the last 10-15 years too, mainly due to how powerful and influential the Betfair exchange and market has become. These guys who probably use a bit more skill and nous in terms of hedging, where the guys working at Coral, Ladbrokes etc etc would be more reliant upon data and volume to make their decisions.

The art of good bookmaking has generally been lost though. These large organisations do not really want anything to do with people who win or display knowledge on a regular basis, so their tactic is to make life as difficult as possible for these people to place bets.

I understand (from a guy who was senior in an Index trading operation for retail clients) that the trick is not so much the Hedging as knowing which clients to hedge and which not to hedge.  You run the numbers and work out which clients regularly make money (hedge them) and which regulalry lose (take the risk full on).

2 hours ago, Mark Kelly said:

XG? What does that actually boil down to other than "you should have scored and you didn't , where's my £10k ?"

Pretty much.  But it is still a lot lot better than "shots" or shots one target as an assessment of attacking impact.  Which is in turn far superior to "I buy my ticket so I know XXX and YYY are crap".
As a tool to inform discussion xG is great and hits the sweet spot between Forward passes to the last 33 and the simple score line.

[Max Fowler]

Is Poch too relaxed about how things are going? The man Chukwemeka said is "more friend" than manager... TBC.

 

 

[xceleryx]

3 hours ago, Max Fowler said:

Is Poch too relaxed about how things are going? The man Chukwemeka said is "more friend" than manager... TBC.

 

 

Wouldn't say he's too relaxed, but more familiar with the ebbs and flows of young developing teams having managed several before. 

He knows what to expect and what's needed in such an environment, big part of why he was likely hired in the first place.

[kev61]

On 20/09/2023 at 07:49, Thiago97 said:

 

If they were meaningless when compared with the naked eye, well these guys and hugely far east syndicates simply wouldn’t make it pay. Data is quite simply their edge in the market. 

That is entirely different.You can't judge a player on data.

For example if a player looks good in  training suggests a player will do well on match days  it is no guarantee they will.

The only statistics that are relevant is league position,how many goals scored and how many goals conceded.

If we concede too many goals it means we have a problem in defense - if we don't score enough it means we have a problem in attack.

The problem I see without stat's is we still have a problem in midfield that affects both the attack and defense... and god help us the dreaded stat's.

Edited September 23, 2023 by kev61

[thevelourfog]

A lime is not a lemon, guys. Just remember that and we'll be okay.

[Thiago97]

4 hours ago, kev61 said:

That is entirely different.You can't judge a player on data.

For example if a player looks good in  training suggests a player will do well on match days  it is no guarantee they will.

The only statistics that are relevant is league position,how many goals scored and how many goals conceded.

If we concede too many goals it means we have a problem in defense - if we don't score enough it means we have a problem in attack.

The problem I see without stat's is we still have a problem in midfield that affects both the attack and defense... and god help us the dreaded stat's.

The old black and white technically correct or incorrect argument. Always stands up well. 

[boratsbrother]

An example of stats not always being an accurate guide to a players ability.

Take a player like Glem Hoddle. He would try to make a lot of technically very difficult passes,  long ones, others where it was like trying to pass through the eye of a needle etc. I would bet he had a lower pass completion percentage than a player like a Jorginho, who made countless numbers of short, safe passes. So going by the stats one could argue Jorginho was a better passer than Hoddle, but those who actually watched both would have seen that Jorginho couldn't lace Hoddles boots as a passer of a football.

Edited September 23, 2023 by boratsbrother

[Thiago97]

29 minutes ago, boratsbrother said:

An example of stats not always being an accurate guide to a players ability.

Take a player like Glem Hoddle. He would try to make a lot of technically very difficult passes,  long ones, others where it was like trying to pass through the eye of a needle etc. I would bet he had a lower pass completion percentage than a player like a Jorginho, who made countless numbers of short, safe passes. So going by the stats one could argue Jorginho was a better passer than Hoddle, but those who actually watched both would have seen that Jorginho couldn't lace Hoddles boots as a passer of a football.

With all respect, I think many are aware of this, and this does get factored in when key personnel are using stats. They are just not looking at them blindly without context.

 

[Max Fowler]

2 hours ago, Thiago97 said:

With all respect, I think many are aware of this, and this does get factored in when key personnel are using stats. They are just not looking at them blindly without context.

There is an irony though, that we were saying exactly the same thing last season under Potter.

"We're creating chances! We're playing well! We deserve to win these games based on the stats!"

Key stat that the board ignored - we underperformed our xG more than any other team last season. In this campaign, only Everton have underperformed their xG more. How is this being heralded as a good thing? 

Of course I would rather we are creating chances but exactly the same thing is happening as last season.

If you chronically can't put the ball in the net, if your biggest problem is scoring goals, then the first thing you should invest big money in is the attack.

Instead, we've spent big elsewhere and are wondering why the unproven Jackson hasn't hit the ground running.

Oh, of course! Injuries. That other repeated narrative from last season.

 

 

[jasonb]

There is an irony of course though there are differences, James was an inquiry nightmare now we have Gusto.

Enzo was the only decent M/F last season now we have Caicedo, next five matches should enable him to show his potential.

Broja is coming back and we still have Nukunku who showed early potential. 

I'm staying optimistic though think after next 5 EPL games will tell us where we are going this season.

[Rob B]

31 minutes ago, jasonb said:

I'm staying optimistic though think after next 5 EPL games will tell us where we are going this season.

I know there is huge sour grape vibes with what I’m about to say, but I don’t think it helps that the PL leaders basically win every week nowadays.  The last 6-7 years the winners of the league have averaged 95 points a season, whereas the decade ago it was mid 80’s - and if you go back to Fergie/Wenger era, there were three years on the bounce where the champions had 70-something points. 

So what I’m getting at is that if you lose or draw a few games early on into the season, you know you almost can’t recover.  Not just for winning the league (let’s be honest that wasn’t happening for us this year) but even the CL spots become very difficult.

Speaking personally, it’s a horribly deflating feeling that your league campaign is almost over in September. 

[Sleeping Dave]

On 18/09/2023 at 03:53, Michael Tucker said:

I'm obviously wasting my time here. Enjoy yourself.

Well, to write off a manager after five games with the injuries we have, not to mention the inexperienced squad with no goals in it, is a bit pre-mature. 

It's so easy to just say it's the manager. But what does he have to work with? Who is going to score the goals? He also can't play injured players, so there's also that. 

[Dwmh]

4 hours ago, boratsbrother said:

An example of stats not always being an accurate guide to a players ability.

Take a player like Glem Hoddle. He would try to make a lot of technically very difficult passes,  long ones, others where it was like trying to pass through the eye of a needle etc. I would bet he had a lower pass completion percentage than a player like a Jorginho, who made countless numbers of short, safe passes. So going by the stats one could argue Jorginho was a better passer than Hoddle, but those who actually watched both would have seen that Jorginho couldn't lace Hoddles boots as a passer of a football.

A great example of why we take about Stats, and not Stat.

1 hour ago, jasonb said:

I'm staying optimistic though think after next 5 EPL games will tell us where we are going this season.

I think the last 5 told us that already.  

[Mark Kelly]

28 minutes ago, Rob B said:

I know there is huge sour grape vibes with what I’m about to say, but I don’t think it helps that the PL leaders basically win every week nowadays.  The last 6-7 years the winners of the league have averaged 95 points a season, whereas the decade ago it was mid 80’s - and if you go back to Fergie/Wenger era, there were three years on the bounce where the champions had 70-something points. 

So what I’m getting at is that if you lose or draw a few games early on into the season, you know you almost can’t recover.  Not just for winning the league (let’s be honest that wasn’t happening for us this year) but even the CL spots become very difficult.

Speaking personally, it’s a horribly deflating feeling that your league campaign is almost over in September. 

Probably why SKY and the PGMOL are gerrymandering results to ensure there's a race for second place. 

[Mark Kelly]

14 minutes ago, Sleeping Dave said:

Well, to write off a manager after five games with the injuries we have, not to mention the inexperienced squad with no goals in it, is a bit pre-mature. 

It's so easy to just say it's the manager. But what does he have to work with? Who is going to score the goals? He also can't play injured players, so there's also that. 

What he could do is not play a left back at left wing so that the left winger you bought amid much fanfare never gets into a rhythm whilst simultaneously playing a centre half at left back and allowing your one decent offensive midfielder to dictate where they play to the detriment of the team.

I don't want him out, I want him to notice. 

[Sleeping Dave]

10 minutes ago, Mark Kelly said:

What he could do is not play a left back at left wing so that the left winger you bought amid much fanfare never gets into a rhythm whilst simultaneously playing a centre half at left back and allowing your one decent offensive midfielder to dictate where they play to the detriment of the team.

I don't want him out, I want him to notice. 

Levi Colwill isn't new at LB, it's a recognized position for him. Perhaps Poch wants to protect him, not throwing him into CB where we also have lots of other options? I agree that Chilwell at LW is a head-scratcher. But against Bournemouth he did play Mudryk (who played well imo) but then took him off and then Bournemouth had nothing to worry about and could press us higher up the pitch with the backline. 

That was a huge tactical mistake by Poch imo. 

[Mark Kelly]

44 minutes ago, Sleeping Dave said:

Levi Colwill isn't new at LB, it's a recognized position for him. Perhaps Poch wants to protect him, not throwing him into CB where we also have lots of other options? I agree that Chilwell at LW is a head-scratcher. But against Bournemouth he did play Mudryk (who played well imo) but then took him off and then Bournemouth had nothing to worry about and could press us higher up the pitch with the backline. 

That was a huge tactical mistake by Poch imo. 

Half the battle is keeping the other side on the back foot, playing Mudryk even though he's not at his best will help, playing Chilwell won't. 

And that really is the nuts of it as far as I'm concerned. Who knows, maybe playing Chilwell overlapping Mudryk would help both of them and us? 

I'm convinced he's worried about our size at set pieces which is why he's playing Desasi Silva and Colwill.

[My Blood Is Blue]

He has to start Chilwell at LB, it absolutely blows my mind that he isn't and is instead starting Colwill there. Colwill should be starting, but ahead of Disasi at CB, not ahead of our vice-captain at left back! I expect we'll keep seeing this though, but I have no idea why.

[Max Fowler]

34 minutes ago, My Blood Is Blue said:

He has to start Chilwell at LB, it absolutely blows my mind that he isn't and is instead starting Colwill there. Colwill should be starting, but ahead of Disasi at CB, not ahead of our vice-captain at left back! I expect we'll keep seeing this though, but I have no idea why.

I think defensively it's a) for the height and b) to protect Thiago Silva

[My Blood Is Blue]

10 minutes ago, Max Fowler said:

I think defensively it's a) for the height and b) to protect Thiago Silva

But limits us so much going forward. If we’re having to protect Silva by sacrificing so much else, maybe it’s time for him to be phased out.

[Thiago97]

47 minutes ago, Max Fowler said:

I think defensively it's a) for the height and b) to protect Thiago Silva

I don’t think it is anything to do with Silva.

I think Poch has talked about fullbacks knowing when to attack and also not from both sides. I think part of the issue here is Poch may think Chilwell is a better player than he is. I think he wants him almost acting like a spare man, getting forward from deep and influencing our attack. For this to have any chance of working, he needs a player capable of defending well with size and pace , knowing that a lot is going to be asked of this player as it will involve being isolated at times (in this case it is Colwill) 

This is just my take on things. Poch seems our right hand side full back as the primary attacker.  With Chilwell acting as a free running attacking, which is why it also looks like a back three of Disasi - Silva- Colwill at times , when Gusto has gone forward. 
 

Caicedo also has an important role in this as he is required to help shut down the opposition in and around the zonal area of Colwill. As yet , we have not had a run of games to try this with Caicedo in there to help.

I could be way off with this, but I don’t think it is a case of Poch seeing Colwill as a left back, nor do I think it’s to protect Silva. I think it’s a case of a tactic being tried and Colwill has the athleticism to attempt to play this role. 
 

It’s probably not really working yet, but it’s also not had many games where all the key elements are together to try it.  I just have my doubts Chilwell has the game to really be effective in this role.