Mauricio Pochettino leaves Chelsea by mutual consent

[Dwmh]

11 hours ago, east lower said:

It’s also completely see through that Bohely and his cohorts went on a charm offensive with the media and briefed against Roman and then Tuchel.

Yes.  Briefing against the previous owner is common.  Buck briefed against Bates.  Bates constantly briefed against Harding and the Mears brothers (who really were appalling).
Briefing about managers and staff though is not done.
 

11 hours ago, east lower said:

But, like a number of other top level coaches these days they seem to have a 3 season limit to their tenures before some sort on implosion occurs.

Yes.  A lot of that I describe as picking the jockey for the horse.  You don't want JM flogging your players down the home straight unless you think they'll have a good chance of winning.  And a lot of the peaks and troughs of teams is due to the short playing life of stars and the investment cycle.
It is a lot like F1 when a team no longer has the best car and the top driver hates not being No 1.

2 hours ago, martin1905 said:

Interestingly he was also sporting director for the German FA for 3 years. Can't imagine many managers have that level of footballing experience and when the club is absolutely desperate for some experienced people to help run the club.........

That 'll rule him out.  A, nobody wants someone who knows how a club should be run involved, it might feed back to the investors.  And secondly it will take him 30 seconds to look at Chelsea and say No Way.

[Original 21]

Article posted from the Independent this morning…(I put the key part, I think, in bold)

Inside Chelsea’s experiment and the problem holding Mauricio Pochettino back

If this January’s market has seemed quiet, it’s in part because there have been very active discussions behind the scenes at the biggest spenders of the last three windows.

Chelsea are trying to figure out how they can still meet Profit and Sustainability requirements and bolster the squad.

They want a major striker, above all Napoli’s Victor Osimhen. The purchase of 1,000 shares for £140m isn’t viewed as an indication of budget, though.

Mauricio Pochettino has already publicly said he has been told they don’t need to sell to buy. This Chelsea hierarchy has generally attempted different methods, constantly looking at angles others haven't thought of yet.

Some in football would go further, though. One common description is that Chelsea are undertaking a huge experiment that's never been seen before in football.

If so, they could be about to come across another finding.

The next four games, across all three competitions, could well decide the entire campaign. They may also dictate Pochettino’s future, despite assurances that he is not under any threat. Results can still develop a momentum of their own, which is precisely what this period threatens.

On Saturday, Chelsea have one of those awkward Premier League fixtures where it is a home derby they should be expected to win but nobody would be surprised if Fulham beat them. A good result is almost more important because there’s then a 10-day break that will give everyone a lot of time to mull over what next.

That ends with the Carabao Cup semi-final second leg against Middlesbrough, where Chelsea need to overcome a 1-0 deficit in an opportunity that would feel like a travesty to squander.

Michael Carrick has done a hugely impressive job but it’s still a Championship side against a club that have had the type of expenditure that usually wins Champions Leagues. It's all for the potential of a first final in this ownership's time, too.

There’s then an FA Cup tie against an Aston Villa team that have almost been the anti-Chelsea in how they’ve over-performed. It won’t escape attention, either, that the Villa Park leadership initially wanted Pochettino before the revelatory Unai Emery. It could be another result that also represents a lesson.

Closing the month, and symbolically coming just before what many perceive is the club’s main event in transfer deadline day, is a trip to Liverpool that carries all sorts of risks.

Who knows what Chelsea’s season could look like then, let alone the first XI.

Pochettino has been working to fire a response to the Middlesbrough defeat in training but this points to one of the problems. There has been a sense of frustration at how little seems to permeate, and how it always feels like there's always one step back. The team just hasn’t evolved at the rate anyone expected, not least Pochettino himself.

That is in part because so much of the squad still has to mature.

This is what has been so experimental. The age profile is unlike anything seen at an elite club in the modern game. Even Ajax 1995 and Manchester United 1996, two of the most famous “young” teams, had a lot of senior figures.

The view from around football and even within the club is that it is “almost all kids” and “not a usual team to coach”. A common stance from those who work in academy football is that, as recently as five years ago, many of the players would still have been in the under-21 squad rather than carrying the responsibility of one of modern football’s noisiest clubs.

It has been more difficult to impose the manager’s system because, rather than being ready to take it on, some players still need more tactical education. Further proof of that comes with how their players on loan have struggled. There’s even a sense from academy level that the ceiling of some of the signings isn’t as high as Chelsea’s many graduates. One view, for example, is that Bashir Humphries should be ahead of Benoit Badiashile but the latter cost over £32m. It doesn’t yet speak to the idea they’ve just accumulated all the best young talent for a future that is coming fast.

In other cases, Pochettino doesn’t have the players who fit. Conor Gallagher, who the hierarchy would be open to selling for Profit and Sustainability reasons, is seen as one of the few who immediately gets what the manager wants. He is almost perfect for Pochettino’s idea of a midfielder in his usual 4-3-3. Beyond that, the Argentine is still trying to work out the best balance for Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez.

That sounds remarkable for two midfielders who collectively cost £221m but that was the hierarchy needlessly paying over the odds, when there was at least some caution within the club about both fees. The players might rise to that kind of value in time. They aren’t there now, though, as reflected by their lower wages.

Going for that younger profile of player is a growing trend in football, especially as the game gets more athletic and it becomes so financially stretched. Real Madrid have taken this idea on almost more than anyone else, in how they adapted to a world of state ownership. At least until now. Chelsea have taken it to new extremes.

Through that, Pochettino himself has gone from one extreme to another. This is the complete opposite of a top-heavy Paris Saint-Germain squad. In exactly Pochettino’s last season at the Parc des Princes, he had a series of players who came for free on huge wages. The Argentine struggled to impose his system there because the club's star system just didn’t allow it. The three attackers, in particular, were given license to float. No manager is afforded any authority at PSG. It has meant nobody in charge has thrived at all, including his Stamford Bridge predecessor, Thomas Tuchel.

People might soon say the same about Chelsea.

A fair response to all of this is that Pochettino knew what he was taking on. Most of it was laid out in the drawn-out appointment process, where the requirements were made clear.

That does bring pressure on Pochettino beyond this job. It might even be a case study in how the wrong choices at the wrong time can ensure a career goes unfulfilled.

The Argentine is still considered a coach the super clubs would look to, but not in the way he was in 2018.

That was when Real Madrid were desperate to appoint him, while Manchester United retained a long-term interest. Pochettino decided to stay at Tottenham Hotspur out of trust and some emotion, even though he was already consciously trying to solve a deepening staleness.

The 2018-19 Champions League final may have offered some vindication of that but he ultimately fell victim to that staleness a few months later. There’s an argument, then, that Pochettino repeated the same mistake twice. He waited too long and then took the wrong jobs, because they happened to be big jobs.

Except, it’s still early in this one. If the above is a gloomy analysis, it’s only a prospective situation that brings pressure. Pochettino can work against it.

For all the consternation within the club about the pace of results, there is an awareness that it is much better than at this point last year under Graham Potter.

Chelsea’s analytics are promising. Passages of certain games have looked good. The belief is that some higher-level finishing, of the type such a club should have, would suddenly make Pochettino’s work so far look much better. They have barely had Christopher Nkunku, after all. They now want another forward.

Pochettino similarly has more influence on transfers, after a meeting with the hierarchy back in September after a chaotic window.

There’s almost an irony, though, that comes as Chelsea are restricted in the market for the first time under this ownership. That has brought more focus on the key figures, too. Todd Boehly hasn’t been as visible, which is saying something for someone who just turned up at the Golden Globes with a new haircut.

It has all made for a quieter market and a subdued Chelsea.

The next few weeks may bring a lot of noise, either way.

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/chelsea-mauricio-pochettino-transfers-b2476905.html

[martin1905]

34 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

That 'll rule him out.  A, nobody wants someone who knows how a club should be run involved, it might feed back to the investors.  And secondly it will take him 30 seconds to look at Chelsea and say No Way.

Almost certainly but I can't imagine the investors are happy at the moment and assume they are fairly intelligent people who must have worked out that their investments are is serious danger,  mostly because of how badly run we have been.

The obvious thing would be to get better people in to run the club and if that means a manager who has not only coached one of the best teams of the modern era, to great success, someone that also has experience much higher up, then it should make a lot of sense to the people that really matter. 

It's easy to assume no big changes are coming, I think the opposite. I just don't see in any world, especially the corporate world with some pretty heavy hitting investors are involved, although I admit I know very little about that world, where big changes aren't on the horizon. And people will be held accountable.

I actually think we will see a reset this summer and see the club rectify their mistakes and start again. In my simple mind i don't see how people get  a certain level without being ruthless and learning from their mistakes. I'd imagine staying at the level is even harder so expect big changes to happen fairly soon.

Again I'm so far away from that high profile,  powerful corporate/money world, I couldn't be further away if I tried, I don't know how it works but I'd be amazed if they just carried on the same way.

[Mark Kelly]

27 minutes ago, Original 21 said:

Article posted from the Independent this morning…(I put the key part, I think, in bold)

Inside Chelsea’s experiment and the problem holding Mauricio Pochettino back

If this January’s market has seemed quiet, it’s in part because there have been very active discussions behind the scenes at the biggest spenders of the last three windows.

Chelsea are trying to figure out how they can still meet Profit and Sustainability requirements and bolster the squad.

They want a major striker, above all Napoli’s Victor Osimhen. The purchase of 1,000 shares for £140m isn’t viewed as an indication of budget, though.

Mauricio Pochettino has already publicly said he has been told they don’t need to sell to buy. This Chelsea hierarchy has generally attempted different methods, constantly looking at angles others haven't thought of yet.

Some in football would go further, though. One common description is that Chelsea are undertaking a huge experiment that's never been seen before in football.

If so, they could be about to come across another finding.

The next four games, across all three competitions, could well decide the entire campaign. They may also dictate Pochettino’s future, despite assurances that he is not under any threat. Results can still develop a momentum of their own, which is precisely what this period threatens.

On Saturday, Chelsea have one of those awkward Premier League fixtures where it is a home derby they should be expected to win but nobody would be surprised if Fulham beat them. A good result is almost more important because there’s then a 10-day break that will give everyone a lot of time to mull over what next.

That ends with the Carabao Cup semi-final second leg against Middlesbrough, where Chelsea need to overcome a 1-0 deficit in an opportunity that would feel like a travesty to squander.

Michael Carrick has done a hugely impressive job but it’s still a Championship side against a club that have had the type of expenditure that usually wins Champions Leagues. It's all for the potential of a first final in this ownership's time, too.

There’s then an FA Cup tie against an Aston Villa team that have almost been the anti-Chelsea in how they’ve over-performed. It won’t escape attention, either, that the Villa Park leadership initially wanted Pochettino before the revelatory Unai Emery. It could be another result that also represents a lesson.

Closing the month, and symbolically coming just before what many perceive is the club’s main event in transfer deadline day, is a trip to Liverpool that carries all sorts of risks.

Who knows what Chelsea’s season could look like then, let alone the first XI.

Pochettino has been working to fire a response to the Middlesbrough defeat in training but this points to one of the problems. There has been a sense of frustration at how little seems to permeate, and how it always feels like there's always one step back. The team just hasn’t evolved at the rate anyone expected, not least Pochettino himself.

That is in part because so much of the squad still has to mature.

This is what has been so experimental. The age profile is unlike anything seen at an elite club in the modern game. Even Ajax 1995 and Manchester United 1996, two of the most famous “young” teams, had a lot of senior figures.

The view from around football and even within the club is that it is “almost all kids” and “not a usual team to coach”. A common stance from those who work in academy football is that, as recently as five years ago, many of the players would still have been in the under-21 squad rather than carrying the responsibility of one of modern football’s noisiest clubs.

It has been more difficult to impose the manager’s system because, rather than being ready to take it on, some players still need more tactical education. Further proof of that comes with how their players on loan have struggled. There’s even a sense from academy level that the ceiling of some of the signings isn’t as high as Chelsea’s many graduates. One view, for example, is that Bashir Humphries should be ahead of Benoit Badiashile but the latter cost over £32m. It doesn’t yet speak to the idea they’ve just accumulated all the best young talent for a future that is coming fast.

In other cases, Pochettino doesn’t have the players who fit. Conor Gallagher, who the hierarchy would be open to selling for Profit and Sustainability reasons, is seen as one of the few who immediately gets what the manager wants. He is almost perfect for Pochettino’s idea of a midfielder in his usual 4-3-3. Beyond that, the Argentine is still trying to work out the best balance for Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez.

That sounds remarkable for two midfielders who collectively cost £221m but that was the hierarchy needlessly paying over the odds, when there was at least some caution within the club about both fees. The players might rise to that kind of value in time. They aren’t there now, though, as reflected by their lower wages.

Going for that younger profile of player is a growing trend in football, especially as the game gets more athletic and it becomes so financially stretched. Real Madrid have taken this idea on almost more than anyone else, in how they adapted to a world of state ownership. At least until now. Chelsea have taken it to new extremes.

Through that, Pochettino himself has gone from one extreme to another. This is the complete opposite of a top-heavy Paris Saint-Germain squad. In exactly Pochettino’s last season at the Parc des Princes, he had a series of players who came for free on huge wages. The Argentine struggled to impose his system there because the club's star system just didn’t allow it. The three attackers, in particular, were given license to float. No manager is afforded any authority at PSG. It has meant nobody in charge has thrived at all, including his Stamford Bridge predecessor, Thomas Tuchel.

People might soon say the same about Chelsea.

A fair response to all of this is that Pochettino knew what he was taking on. Most of it was laid out in the drawn-out appointment process, where the requirements were made clear.

That does bring pressure on Pochettino beyond this job. It might even be a case study in how the wrong choices at the wrong time can ensure a career goes unfulfilled.

The Argentine is still considered a coach the super clubs would look to, but not in the way he was in 2018.

That was when Real Madrid were desperate to appoint him, while Manchester United retained a long-term interest. Pochettino decided to stay at Tottenham Hotspur out of trust and some emotion, even though he was already consciously trying to solve a deepening staleness.

The 2018-19 Champions League final may have offered some vindication of that but he ultimately fell victim to that staleness a few months later. There’s an argument, then, that Pochettino repeated the same mistake twice. He waited too long and then took the wrong jobs, because they happened to be big jobs.

Except, it’s still early in this one. If the above is a gloomy analysis, it’s only a prospective situation that brings pressure. Pochettino can work against it.

For all the consternation within the club about the pace of results, there is an awareness that it is much better than at this point last year under Graham Potter.

Chelsea’s analytics are promising. Passages of certain games have looked good. The belief is that some higher-level finishing, of the type such a club should have, would suddenly make Pochettino’s work so far look much better. They have barely had Christopher Nkunku, after all. They now want another forward.

Pochettino similarly has more influence on transfers, after a meeting with the hierarchy back in September after a chaotic window.

There’s almost an irony, though, that comes as Chelsea are restricted in the market for the first time under this ownership. That has brought more focus on the key figures, too. Todd Boehly hasn’t been as visible, which is saying something for someone who just turned up at the Golden Globes with a new haircut.

It has all made for a quieter market and a subdued Chelsea.

The next few weeks may bring a lot of noise, either way.

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/chelsea-mauricio-pochettino-transfers-b2476905.html

I'll give him his due Pochettino writes English in a much more assured way than he speaks it. 

[Dwmh]

2 hours ago, Original 21 said:

Article posted from the Independent this morning…(I put the key part, I think, in bold)

Inside Chelsea’s experiment and the problem holding Mauricio Pochettino back

If this January’s market has seemed quiet, it’s in part because there have been very active discussions behind the scenes at the biggest spenders of the last three windows.

There is another puff piece (I guess) in the Times today too.

I have no intention of reading either in full.  Clearly this is an attempt to improve the status of Poch in the mind of fans.  Ergo 90% BS and all I would actually learn is whether this is the Club PR doing it, or Poch's agent.
Don't care, as either means precisely the same, he is safe for 2 weeks and no longer.

[Bison]

Poch in the middle of making excuses reports that Caicedo told him that he lost at Middlesbrough last season. 

Strange. 

[Dwmh]

2 hours ago, martin1905 said:

Almost certainly but I can't imagine the investors are happy at the moment and assume they are fairly intelligent people who must have worked out that their investments are is serious danger,  mostly because of how badly run we have been.
yes

The obvious thing would be to get better people in to run the club and if that means a manager who has not only coached one of the best teams of the modern era, to great success, someone that also has experience much higher up, then it should make a lot of sense to the people that really matter. 
No.  The obvious thing is to cut and run and accept a 50% loss.  CFC 2022 might have been one of the many vehicles that could generate the expected 30% + returns that Clearlake usually delivers.  Right now the best thing they can do to generate that kind of return it to accept half  (say £1bn) now and try to invest it somewhere else where 30% is achievable.
Right now, especially if they are unwilling to challenge FFP rules, Chelsea is going absolutely nowhere for 7 years.  For an investor looking for a relatively safe 15% over 10 years it makes sense to buy at half the recent price and run conservatively.   There are investors for that.  They don't include Clearlake.
(and Technical - taking on high leverage to improve returns would require the board to demonstrate the ability to run a tight ship with low risk management.  I don't see they can demonstrate that (but note that is what Jim Ratcliffe and Ineos have done all they working life).

It's easy to assume no big changes are coming, I think the opposite. I just don't see in any world, especially the corporate world with some pretty heavy hitting investors are involved, although I admit I know very little about that world, where big changes aren't on the horizon. And people will be held accountable.
Exactly.  I also  think there is a lot of deep currents flowing beneath the calm surface.

I actually think we will see a reset this summer and see the club rectify their mistakes and start again. In my simple mind i don't see how people get  a certain level without being ruthless and learning from their mistakes. I'd imagine staying at the level is even harder so expect big changes to happen fairly soon.

Well yes.  But you leave aside the key question.  Were the mistakes Mudryk, Poch and Caicedo (3 potential villains picked at random)   or are they  Uncle Tob Boleigh and Egg.  And is Rectify "chuck in another billion and hope?  Or is it henderson, Dier, and sell anyone we can get £40m + for and try to stay up?

Again I'm so far away from that high profile,  powerful corporate/money world, I couldn't be further away if I tried, I don't know how it works but I'd be amazed if they just carried on the same way.

One thing for sure, who ever is organising these big changes is going to be damn sure not to inform Poch, the players let alone the fans until the day it happens.  No news does NOT mean nothing is happening.

 

[Mark Kelly]

I know I keep saying it but I think it's worth repeating .

Pochettino is the problem , not the solution (even if everything else is rotten) 

[Sabrina F.]

Honestly I really fail to feel strongly about Pochettino in any way possible. I’m kind of shocked at how passionately fans are talking about him online. Like they don’t quite see the forest for the trees.

 

It goes so far beyond him. In fact, it’s probably already over for him and I imagine some of those pieces about Chelsea being An Impossible Job are his way out. And frankly? I would agree. You can be both mediocre and be set up to fail. 
 

And I try to see the future of this squad and this club without Poch and it doesn’t really get better. They loaned Maatsen so they had to recall a loanee to loan in the UK instead - Fofana is loaned to Burnley and they brief it’s for PL experience. We all know that’s not true. They just lack super basic planning and a player who couldn’t play for Union Berlin has no guarantees of playing for Burnley.

 

Then there are 2 Japanese youngsters training with the academy, in the great hope of finding the next Mitoma it’s said. All the while rumors for Evan Ferguson are surfacing.

It sure feels like we’re persisting on the path to financially doped Brighton without the smarts. 
 

They’ve been briefing David Ornstein about the 4 windows plan or whatever the fuck that is. 
 

I’m having a hard time seeing a reckoning or course-correcting soon. They might sink more costs for another year, that year might be the one to fully kill the project with the club as collateral.

 

In a way best case scenario is us being sold at a loss and lucking into an Eliott Group ownership - terribly pragmatic that will see us through go some austerity times, just to become a somewhat normal football club again. I’d kill for some normalcy right now.

[Mark Kelly]

5 minutes ago, Sabrina F. said:

Honestly I really fail to feel strongly about Pochettino in any way possible. I’m kind of shocked at how passionately fans are talking about him online. Like they don’t quite see the forest for the trees.

 

It goes so far beyond him. In fact, it’s probably already over for him and I imagine some of those pieces about Chelsea being An Impossible Job are his way out. And frankly? I would agree. You can be both mediocre and be set up to fail. 
 

And I try to see the future of this squad and this club without Poch and it doesn’t really get better. They loaned Maatsen so they had to recall a loanee to loan in the UK instead - Fofana is loaned to Burnley and they brief it’s for PL experience. We all know that’s not true. They just lack super basic planning and a player who couldn’t play for Union Berlin has no guarantees of playing for Burnley.

 

Then there are 2 Japanese youngsters training with the academy, in the great hope of finding the next Mitoma it’s said. All the while rumors for Evan Ferguson are surfacing.

It sure feels like we’re persisting on the path to financially doped Brighton without the smarts. 
 

They’ve been briefing David Ornstein about the 4 windows plan or whatever the fuck that is. 
 

I’m having a hard time seeing a reckoning or course-correcting soon. They might sink more costs for another year, that year might be the one to fully kill the project with the club as collateral.

 

In a way best case scenario is us being sold at a loss and lucking into an Eliott Group ownership - terribly pragmatic that will see us through go some austerity times, just to become a somewhat normal football club again. I’d kill for some normalcy right now.

Your posts are a lot more measured and less knee jerk than mine and I understand that "everything" is broken but Pochettino deserves to lose his job because he's not doing anything of note to improve anyone's game , he chops and changes the defence so there's never a settled back four as theres always a new CB pairing , he even before injuries played players in positions that actually weakened their games like Chilwelll , hung out to dry on the wing because he's scared of everyone we play. 

When we're on the front foot in a game but the opposition get a goal (Palace) he instantly changes the tactics to counter them and weaken us instead of concentrating on what we can do to them .

He's got coward written through him like a stick of rock .

I'd swap him tomorrow for practically anyone except Southgate , Moyes and Roberto Martinez. 

No wonder he's got lemons on his desk they must be family members pictures.

[Dwmh]

15 minutes ago, Sabrina F. said:

Honestly I really fail to feel strongly about Pochettino in any way possible. I’m kind of shocked at how passionately fans are talking about him online. Like they don’t quite see the forest for the trees.

ditto, but there are always strong reactions to managers.  What was said about poor old supply teacher, Grant, was horrific.  And he did ok.  Maybe a third of posters actively hate JM.  Even today.  (I'm not defending Poch here).

 

17 minutes ago, Sabrina F. said:

And I try to see the future of this squad and this club without Poch and it doesn’t really get better. They loaned Maatsen so they had to recall a loanee to loan in the UK instead - Fofana is loaned to Burnley and they brief it’s for PL experience. We all know that’s not true. They just lack super basic planning and a player who couldn’t play for Union Berlin has no guarantees of playing for Burnley.

Not an easy fix.  Instinctively a new manager would bring in a couple of 30 yo midfielders and a CB he can trust.  Not sure that would go down well.

[There is also a squad issue that I don't really understand - why do we only have 20 full squad members including 4GKs?  Is there some sub-category rule we are running too close to?]

19 minutes ago, Sabrina F. said:

I’m having a hard time seeing a reckoning or course-correcting soon. They might sink more costs for another year, that year might be the one to fully kill the project with the club as collateral.

In a way best case scenario is us being sold at a loss and lucking into an Eliott Group ownership - terribly pragmatic that will see us through go some austerity times, just to become a somewhat normal football club again. I’d kill for some normalcy right now.

Yes and yes

[Ham]

33 minutes ago, Mark Kelly said:

I know I keep saying it but I think it's worth repeating .

Pochettino is the problem , not the solution (even if everything else is rotten) 

Once and for all Mark, get off the fence.

Are you #pochin or #pochout?

[Mark Kelly]

Just now, Ham said:

Once and for all Mark, get off the fence.

Are you #pochin or #pochout?

I'm in two minds 

Laurel and Hardy

[Mark Kelly]

Just now, Ham said:

Once and for all Mark, get off the fence.

Are you #pochin or #pochout?

 

[thevelourfog]

3 hours ago, martin1905 said:

Almost certainly but I can't imagine the investors are happy at the moment and assume they are fairly intelligent people who must have worked out that their investments are is serious danger,  mostly because of how badly run we have been.

The obvious thing would be to get better people in to run the club and if that means a manager who has not only coached one of the best teams of the modern era, to great success, someone that also has experience much higher up, then it should make a lot of sense to the people that really matter. 

It's easy to assume no big changes are coming, I think the opposite. I just don't see in any world, especially the corporate world with some pretty heavy hitting investors are involved, although I admit I know very little about that world, where big changes aren't on the horizon. And people will be held accountable.

I actually think we will see a reset this summer and see the club rectify their mistakes and start again. In my simple mind i don't see how people get  a certain level without being ruthless and learning from their mistakes. I'd imagine staying at the level is even harder so expect big changes to happen fairly soon.

Again I'm so far away from that high profile,  powerful corporate/money world, I couldn't be further away if I tried, I don't know how it works but I'd be amazed if they just carried on the same way.

Picked out the two bits I've made because I completely agree with both. I just have a different view on what will happen.

The simplest, safest thing for an investor like Clearlake to do when they aren't happy is to wash their hands of it. In isolation, selling at huge loss will look disastrous. Across the whole portfolio, though ... Hardly a dent. The investors won't be happy with what is happening with their money, and it is because of that they will not be parting with any more of it.

And that leads me to the big changes. They will come, and they are not likely to be about restoring former glories. Who our next owners are, what is left by the time they come in, and what that means for our simple existence, never mind status in the game, is the greatest worry for me now.

[Ham]

I've said it before, but the doom-mongery going on at the moment is way too black and white.

A striker starts scoring the goals we're creating and the future looks far more rosy. It's the same for any club. One cog is replaced or upgraded and the whole mechanism works much better.

Talk of the owners selling up because our XG is nowhere near our G is, in my opinion, pure sensationalism.

Our squad is top 4 for sure, we've just never been able to put out anything like our best 11 since the CL Final in May 21.

Whilst I've finally moved into the Poch out brigade, I don't think the squad is broken. Far from it. 

[ROTG]

57 minutes ago, Mark Kelly said:

I know I keep saying it but I think it's worth repeating .

Pochettino is the problem , not the solution (even if everything else is rotten) 

Poch and others were interviewed by the  Winstanley and Stewart, poch being their recommendation once other candidates said no after seeing the PowerPoint presentation. along with them spunking 500m on players without any input from a coach, therefore all 3 should go. 

[Mark Kelly]

Just now, Ham said:

I've said it before, but the doom-mongery going on at the moment is way too black and white.

A striker starts scoring the goals we're creating and the future looks far more rosy. It's the same for any club. One cog is replaced or upgraded and the whole mechanism works much better.

Talk of the owners selling up because our XG is nowhere near our G is, in my opinion, pure sensationalism.

Our squad is top 4 for sure, we've just never been able to put out anything like our best 11 since the CL Final in May 21.

Whilst I've finally moved into the Poch out brigade, I don't think the squad is broken. Far from it. 

Exactly why I've been some might say (😆) Anti -Poch , the players are definitely better than his piss poor coaching is achieving 

[Mark Kelly]

Just now, ROTG said:

Poch and others were interviewed by the  Winstanley and Stewart, poch being their recommendation once other candidates said no after seeing the PowerPoint presentation. along with them spunking 500m on players without any input from a coach, therefore all 3 should go. 

I wouldn't argue against that , but some other no-mark would get the job instead of someone with the first clue 

[thevelourfog]

5 minutes ago, Ham said:

Talk of the owners selling up because our XG is nowhere near our G is, in my opinion, pure sensationalism.

Completely. Just entirely on your part. 

[Dwmh]

3 minutes ago, Ham said:

I've said it before, but the doom-mongery hype going on at the moment is way too black and white.

A striker starts scoring the goals we're creating and the future looks far more rosy. It's the same for any club. One cog is replaced or upgraded and the whole mechanism works much better.

Talk of the owners selling up because our XG is nowhere near our G   because we beat Sheff U, Palace with a late goal and hang on against Luton is, in my opinion, pure sensationalism.

Our squad is top 4 6 for sure, we've just   were just never been able to put out anything like our best 11 since the CL Final in May 21 yet we still got 74 points in the next season.  And we never were able to play like a top 6 club from the day Clearlake arrived.

Whilst I've finally moved into the Poch out brigade, I don't think the squad is broken. Far from it.   And pretty much everythign else to do with the club

Remarkable how similar Ham's view is to what I might have written immediately before the Middlesborough game.
Amazing how one inconsquential loss in a first leg, with what should be a comfortable home win to take us to a final, has turned so many people from black to white.

[Dwmh]

20 minutes ago, thevelourfog said:

The simplest, safest thing for an investor like Clearlake to do when they aren't happy is to wash their hands of it. In isolation, selling at huge loss will look disastrous. Across the whole portfolio, though ... Hardly a dent. The investors won't be happy with what is happening with their money, and it is because of that they will not be parting with any more of it.

There are different types of investors.  If you look up Clearlake's marketing and track record it is clearly a hugely aggressive Hedge Fund with very ambitious targets for rates of return.  Typical returns for its various funds are 30% per annum.  In practice that means:

• Massive fees for the managers so that actual returns before fees are even higher than 30%*
• Investment on the basis that 40-50% per annum returns are feasible
• and acceptance that a few will go bust
• 30% a year compound  means 69% in 2 years, 120% in 3 years, 271% in 5 and 1279% in 10 years.
• Getting out early is as critical as tripling your money.
• A solid return of 10% a year is a complete disaster for Clearlake (but not other investors)
• It's end investors are likely extremely diversified with their money in Clearlake adding a little bit of high risk spice to an otherwise very boring and safe portfolio.  They accept the risk
• But Clearlake's business model depend on offering spice to justify their fees*
• 10 year low risk investments cannot be held by Clearlake - they will dump them and reinvest in something riskier
• Better to dump for  £1000m now and reinvest the cash than wait 12 months to get £1200m next year

 

* A boring fund manager might take 0.5% fees.  An Active manager / Hedge Fund might take 5% & 10% of profits.

In other words Clearlake's management are walking with their feet in concrete if they hang on to a Chelsea primed for slow growth with a priority of just staying in the Prem.
But there are plenty of other specialist investment funds that might want that investment if  it can be bought cheaply

 

20 minutes ago, thevelourfog said:

And that leads me to the big changes. They will come, and they are not likely to be about restoring former glories. Who our next owners are, what is left by the time they come in, and what that means for our simple existence, never mind status in the game, is the greatest worry for me now.

Well yes.  Two types i guess.  If only we could choose.
Asset Stripper - offer £600m for a quick sale, flog off the best players for £400m, move to share grounds with QPR in the Championship and redevelop the ground for about £1 billion (CPO I know, but these will be the Rachmans of the investment world).

Highly geared "Private Equity".  These funds buy stable assets, cut costs, borrow huge amounts against the assets, and trust that the cash flow of the business will pay down the debt.  Jim Ratcliffe has made his fortune at Ineos with that approach, specialising in the oil and Chemical sector.  Older members may recall Lord Hanson did the same through his vehicle, Hanson Trust.  As well as individuals (you could argue Bates was doing much the same) there are specialist Private Equity funds.

The idea is that a 10% return is boring.  But borrow 80% at 7% then you are paying 5.6% of the full investment in interest, keeping 4.4% but only funding a fifth of it.  (Buy to let with a loan if you like).  If all goes to plan you are making a 22% return.  Perhaps much more.  (or perhaps you are Fxxxed.  It is a different type of high risk to Clearlakes approach)

For both types, getting in at the right price is crucial.
For the Gearing, banks or bond investors have to be reassured that their loans have a reasonable chance of being repaid and that the management will take a cautious low risk approach.  Jim Ratcliff - sure - he has done it many times.  TB&Egg?  Forget it.

Forget about another Growth investor.  If Clearlake wanted to spend another £billion they couldn't without breaking FFP.  It might be possible to just call the legal bluff that FFP is, but if Newcastle won't do it, I can't seen a Chelsea owner doing it.
Asset strip or cost management - these are the only option.
Clearlake is unable to do either.

[chrisb]

47 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

There are different types of investors.  If you look up Clearlake's marketing and track record it is clearly a hugely aggressive Hedge Fund with very ambitious targets for rates of return.  Typical returns for its various funds are 30% per annum.  In practice that means:

(Snip)

You could have least had the decency to put the Samaritans phone number on the end of that post!

 I think I’ll go back to sticking my head in the sand and pretend it’s all sunshine and lollipops!

[Max Fowler]

IMO the reality of the situation is this - Poch is already on his way out of the club, whether that happens before the end of the season or in the summer is a moot point. Barring a significant turnaround in results and performances, I struggle to see how he stays.

The rumours have started about player unrest; he has that look in his eye of a dead man walking; excuses that completely contradict his message at the start of the season; strange selection decisions and some atrocious performances along the way.

Yes he has been dealt a terrible hand, but we've seen this movie a dozen times before. You don't need to be Poch in/out or Clearlake in/out to recognise that. Footballing reality dictates that when the atmosphere turns this way - there's only one outcome.

[martin1905]

3 hours ago, thevelourfog said:

Picked out the two bits I've made because I completely agree with both. I just have a different view on what will happen.

The simplest, safest thing for an investor like Clearlake to do when they aren't happy is to wash their hands of it. In isolation, selling at huge loss will look disastrous. Across the whole portfolio, though ... Hardly a dent. The investors won't be happy with what is happening with their money, and it is because of that they will not be parting with any more of it.

And that leads me to the big changes. They will come, and they are not likely to be about restoring former glories. Who our next owners are, what is left by the time they come in, and what that means for our simple existence, never mind status in the game, is the greatest worry for me now.

I've lost all love for the modern game, it's boring as shit and the whole vibe is completely different from what it used to be. It's just not the same anymore and nowhere near as enjoyable going. I couldn't care less about the modern day footballer and have never felt so distanced from them and my club.

I've followed us for years all over Europe and seen us win everything.  After Munich I always said that was it, we'd reached the pinnacle and it was beyond my wildest dreams as a Chelsea fan. Nothing can ever top that night, it's impossible. 

Since I loaned my season ticket for this season I've been going home and away watching Aldershot and its been absolutely brilliant, reminds me of what it used to be like going to football.

You'll have to take me at my word for what I'm about to say but I genuine wouldn't mind us being shafted because of FFP and being kicked out of the Premier league all the way down to league 2. I've watched us play and beat everyone across an entire continent. What I haven't seen is us playing a whole host of clubs from the football league and I would love to follow us all over this country as we start from the bottom and try to work our way back up. If nothing else the journey would be epic and life is all about the journey.