Predictions for 24/25 season

[Bison]

Quote

 

Guardian writers’ predicted position: 7th (NB: this is not necessarily John Brewin’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 6th

Prospects

To suggest the Chelsea of 2024-25 are enigmatic hugely underplays it. Pretty much everything that followed the club’s 2021 Champions League celebrations has embraced chaos and confusion. The football world looks on in astonishment as a club with a rich, colourful history is used as an investment vehicle, a trading platform, by venture capitalist owners.

 

Rest of the article: https://www.theguardian.com/football/article/2024/aug/07/premier-league-2024-25-preview-no-6-chelsea

7th is quite generous.

[thevelourfog]

We've no business not winning the Conference League, loads of the other teams in it would be League One clubs in England.

League, who knows. I think we're relying on Palmer carrying us when the likelihood is that, brilliant though he is, he won't be doing last year's goals and assists numbers every season. I expect a slow start under Maresca.

[Bison]

[Thiago97]

Very difficult to predict overall, but in the end I am expecting something very similar to last season to be honest. 
I would expect 4th-6th type area. I don’t doubt that technically Maresca will be more hands on in coaching of players than Poch. At the same time, I think the team will really miss the stability and experience of Poch. He has strong experience of managing high pressure situations , both as a player and a manager. That experience no doubt kept a positivity amongst the players last season, which was huge to no bad run setting in over a period of more than 2-3 games. The value of this will become apparent this season. 
I don’t expect the slow start a few others do, but I think Maresca is going to need at least one season to settle in and build something. It’s questionable if he gets that time, but he will definitely need it.

The mistakes will continue, the lack of leadership has not been addressed, if anything it has declined further. 
My biggest fear, I am fully expecting a need to be more clinical this season. I’m not sure we have the players to be clinical , so I see many games where we will be talking about missing crucial chances. I don’t see us being as creative a team under Maresca when compared with Poch.

4th would be a great result. I suspect we will come up short though.  I don’t expect progress this season, but further foundation building for the following season. 

[Sleeping Dave]

As things stand at the minute, I reckon anything from 6th to somewhere in midtable is a viable outcome. Igf Maresca get a good start, looks unlikely mind, we may do better due to sheer momentum. 

Looking at our squad, there are some clear weaknesses and some clear strengths. 

Strengths: 

We have got some good attacking players, with very diverse skill sets and in theory, should have goals in them. Nkunku, Palmer, Neto, Mudryk, Sterling and Madueke isn't bad on paper. 

We have, atleast on paper, a really good FB set-up with James, Gusto, Cucurella and Chilwell. The fear here is that we won't utilise them in the best way. If I have understood Marescas system correctly, the inverted FB ploy means that one will revert to become the third CB and one will step up and become a DM of sorts. Three of these players are at their best when they can attack down the wing. A clear worry no doubt. 

Weaknesses:

We have three average keepers in Sanchez, Jorgensen and Petrovic. Which one of these average keepers will be our GK1 is anyones guess, but none of them are good enough for the job at hand.

Our CBs are completely devoid of leadership. Only Colwill is fit for a "playing out of the back" approach, whereas Badiashile and Fofana has clear problems with proper defending. Fofana has no grasp of how to man-mark and is ridiculously prone to long-term injuries. Perhaps just unlucky, but I fear he is broken - both mentally and physically. 

Central midfield is a shambles. Fernandez is clearly not good enough to be an automatic starter for us, and in Marescas system, the task to shore us up defensively will land on either Caicedo, Lavia or Ugochukwu (plus one of the FBs)

We have too many players. Right now, out first team squad is likely to be 29 players strong. Marescas is known for not utilising many players, rather focusing on a core of players not more than 17-18 who plays the vast majority of the minutes at hand. How will this impact squad harmony? 

Our striker set-up is both shallow and devoid of proper world class. Jackson is promising, but Guiu is a complete gamble. He doesn't even have meaningful first team experience... We badly lack a established number 9 - maybe Osimhen will be that guy? Fingers crossed we can get that over the line.

 

Likely squad:

GK: Sanchez, Jorgensen, Bettinelli

RB: James, Gusto

LB: Cucurella, Chilwell, Veiga

CB: Colwill, Disasi, Badiashile, Adarabioyo, Fofana, Acheampong

CM: Fernandez, Caicedo, Lavia, Dewsbury-Hall, Ugochukwu

W: Palmer, Neto, Madueke, Mudryk, Sterling, George

AM: Nkunku, Chukwuekema

S: Jackson, Guiu (Osimhen?)

 

Likely "best XI":

GK: Sanchez

RB: James

RCB: Disasi

LCB: Colwill

LB: Cucurella

DM: Caicedo

CM: Fernandez

AM: Nkunku

RW: Palmer

LW: Neto

S: Jackson

 

Prediction: 

Premier League: 6th-10th (I suspect a tough start for Maresca, whether he can turn that around is anyones guess)

FA Cup: Impossible to predict. It may even be a scenario where Maresca isn't the manager when the tournament kicks-off for us  in january

League Cup: QF

UEFA Conference League: We really should make the SFs as a bare minimum. The best teams participating in this tournament is Lens, Real Betis, Fiorentina, Copenhagen and potentially a few others that loses the 3rd qualifying round for the Europa League. 

 

[Sabrina F.]

Some prediction models and the betting markets have us at 4th and 5th - those models are based on "past is the key to the future" and last season, our underlying numbers from last season would project us to be 4th for 24/25 purely on a statistical outlook.

But last season's data is almost moot. New manager, tactical upheaval, 3 of the players part of that XI that won 5 in a row (whether those performances were as good as the results) are gone, so very hard for me to trust that data can still be viable. The new manager is inexperienced and the Chelsea job is a very high difficulty one (harder than anytime in the Roman years).

He needs to sort out a coherent XI quickly, fix the out-of-possession issues foreseen in pre-season and hope one or two individuals can be consistent game-changers. All the while managing this mess of an environment. Tough, tough job.

I'd say the odds % are like this:

4th : 5%

5th : 15%

6th : 20%

7th : 30%

8th: 20%

9th: 5% 

10th: 5%

So basically, the most high variance team in the league, which isn't that much different to last season where we were hanging at 10th for most of the season before ending up at 6th.  In the group hunting for CL, we maybe have the highest ceiling in theory, because a fit Nkunku with a sustainable Palmer is an elite attack, with the encouraging contributions of Jackson and whomever's having a purple patch of the moment, but it's also very hypothetical and it implies everything clicking immediately. Top 3 is almost set, that means there's one spot left for 4 or 5 teams, a few of them will need to underachieve for us to have a chance, I think most likely Newcastle and Utd recover. 

6th or 7th seems the most plausible if like nothing catastrophic happens in terms of Murphy's Law (which has prevailed past 2, 3 seasons) and nothing extraordinary happens either.

[BMox81]

As always, I go in with the same expectations every season: To win the lot.

[east lower]

3 minutes ago, BMox81 said:

As always, I go in with the same expectations every season: To win the lot.

As always, you'll end up disappointed then 😉

It's just that none of know what level of disappointment that's going to be!

 

[BMox81]

3 minutes ago, east lower said:

As always, you'll end up disappointed then 😉

It's just that none of know what level of disappointment that's going to be!

 

Would rather that than predict us finishing 8th.

[east lower]

56 minutes ago, BMox81 said:

Would rather that than predict us finishing 8th.

You been peeking 👀 at my predictions 

[thevelourfog]

8 hours ago, Bison said:

What are Forest's and Wolves' fans smoking, and where can I get some?

[Sciatika]

It's probably a matter of expectation. They are hopeful of not being relegated as opposed to winning veg much. On the other had, our fans are pessimistic about winning the league. 

[blueandproud]

1 hour ago, thevelourfog said:

What are Forest's and Wolves' fans smoking, and where can I get some?

They're probably under the influence of drink or drugs, or have been listening to idiots like Dean Saunders or Gabby Agbonlahor

Edited August 15 by blueandproud

[asvaberg]

Let's see in May 2025 if this Football Manager prediction was sensible 😁

 

[Proud-Blue]

I've tried to be critical and reflective while making my predictions this season. 

The number one objective for the season must be to get fourth. Number two must be far progression in the Conference League and Club World Cup. My predictions here are based on the sincere hope that the club will not face anything like the injury issues it did last season. If we do, then all of the below can be disregarded.

However, I am going for the following

Premier League: 5th
Conference League: Winners
League Cup: Quarter Finals or earlier
FA Cup: Quarter Finals or earlier

I expect there to be an enormous gap between 2nd and 3rd (unfortunately I think Arsenal will win the title), and for us to be competing with 4/5 teams for those two champions league spots. I think on balance we will probably just miss out, but not by that much.

By far the biggest challenge for us this season will be playing out of the back. I am actually quite optimistic that we'll get plenty of goals year, but I worry we will un-do it with some awful individual errors as we have in pre-season. I expect to see a high concentration of these at the beginning of the season, starting with Man City at home. This means we will have a slow start and the fanbase will go into meltdown, which will make the forum an absolute joy to read(!). However, I also expect this to improve as we progress with the system.

I think, ultimately, the adaption period to the new system will be what costs us top four this year. It would not surprise me if the second half of the season is much stronger than the first - just like last year.

Regarding cups: I don't think we'll be going to Wembley this year, so I've predicted us to go out in both cups around the quarter final stage or earlier (depending on draws I guess). I do expect us to make a real push in the Conference League however, and I actually think we'll win that trophy. I know it's technically post-season, but I would also expect us to give a very good account of ourselves in the club world cup. There are huge financial incentives to do this, so I am certain it's a priority for the ownership.

If I am right and we finish 5th with a Conference League trophy, it will certainly represent real progress, although not radical progress. It would mean Europa League qualification and an extra route to Champions League qualification for the season after. It would nonetheless raise the stakes to a whole new level and the pressure to get CL football in the subsequent year would be enormous. 

As for signings... we'll probably sign one or two more. A top class striker and winger could pull us over the line to fourth. However, this prediction is made assuming that the squad is more or less as it is now.

If I'm right, we can also sing "We won it all" and really mean it. That would be fun at least!

[Box of Tricks]

I think we mess up both domestic cups, win the Conference League and finish third/fourth in the league. We'll be some way off the top two, but we outrun/gun everyone else once we get it together - and we'll achieve that quicker than by five games to go before the end of the season.

Liverpool fall back into the pack and I saw nothing from Spurs, Man Utd and Villa that said they were light years in front of us. They certainly weren't last season.

I think Newcastle might also do better than those teams above.

 

[Box of Tricks]

I think we mess up both domestic cups, win the Conference League and finish third/fourth in the league. We'll be some way off the top two, but I think we outrun/gun everyone else once we get it together - and we'll achieve that quicker than by five games to go before the end of the season.

Liverpool will fall back into the pack and I see nothing from Spurs, Man Utd and Villa that says they're light years in front of us. They certainly weren't last season.

I think Newcastle might also do better than those teams above.

[blueandproud]

My prediction for all teams for the season  (in alphabetical order)

Arsenal -  Hate them or hate them, they will again challenge for the title.  Will love it when they lose and when Arteta spontaneously combusts.  probably 2nd again

Aston Villa  - Incredible last season, and you just have to love Emery for exposing Stevie Me as a fraud of a coach.  Lost Douglas Luiz, but Onana is a good replacement, but with the UCL to contend with they will encounter a problem or two, not sure about the squad depth there.  Top six probably.

Bournemouth - Losing Solanke is a blow, and could struggle without his goals.  Lost Lloyd Kelly as well at the back, but I stlll think they'll stay up

Brenford -  Te sooner they sort out the Ivan Toney saga of whether he stays or leaves the better.  They were too close to the danger for comfort, but the organizational skills of their boss Thomas Frank should keep them up again.

Brighton - Taking a risk with a 31 year old coach, and if they keep selling their best players, the poor house could beckon and they could end up in the Championship if they're not careful.  Still think they'll survive comfortably though.

Chelsea  -  For the first time in many many years,  I haven't a clue what will happen next season, how does Enzo put together a tam top heavy with individuals?  I would like to see some under achievers bombed out, but they're on fat contracts with big salaries, no thanks to  the clueless muppets on our board.  James, Chillwell, Fofana and Nkunku are ridiculously injury prone, and Disasi, Sanchez and Fernandez are joke players, Madueke, Sterling and Mudryk are inconsistent.  If we can get Oshimen that would be brilliant, like Cole Palmer he has star quality.  Gutted for Connor and Trev though, proper Chels being sacrificed for so-called bigger names.  Good Luck Enzo Maresca, you'll need it in spades with our shower masquerading as football owners.  I would love to be more positive about the season, please prove my negativity wrong!

Crystal Palace - Oliver Glasner steadied the ship after it seemed it was sinking too deep after going into freefall.  They've lost Olise, and could lose Guehi as well, but there still is enough quality there to survive.

Everton - Another relegation scrap beckons.  All the uncertainty at boardroom level dominates the headlines about them,.  Dele Alli is all washed up, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin can't score in a brothel these days, but with Sean Dyche at the helm, you would back them in a relegation dogfight, and to preserve Premiership status for their new stadium.

Fulham  - Marco Silva is a canny operator, bur has lost good experienced players like Palinha, Willian, Tosin and Ream.  Smith Rowe looks a good signing, but it's difficult to predict exactly where they'll finish.

Ipswich Town - Many neutrals (me included)  will be rooting for Town to survive in the Prem for at least one season.  But it won't be easy.  If they can get their new signing Smodicz from Blackburn to score regularly they could be OK.

Leicester City - I reckon they will go straight back down again.  They've lost Dewsbury-Hall to us, Vardy is finished and the rest ae of dubious quality for this level.

Liverpool - I shake my head when I listen to these so-called experts in the media saying they can win the league.  No they bloody can't!  They haven't as yet signed anybody, Salah and Van Dijk are both the wrong side of 30 and a year older, Trent Alexander-Arnold could leave on a free at the end of the season and Darwin Nunez couldn't hit a donkey's arse with a frying pan.  And Slott is no genius yet either, so there are doubts.

Manchester City  - I'll keep this short.  They will win it.  Again.  YAWWNNN.

Manchester United - Will flatter to deceive , again.  They more often than not play as individuals rather than as a team, and that breeds inconsistency.  Mason Mount plys with a piano on his back, Rashford needs a constant booting up the backside to get him going., and there are games when Bruno Fernandes doesn't look bothered either, throwing his arms up in the air, moaning and blaming others for his own poor performances.  Won't be surprised if they don't even make the top 6, and Erik 10p will be the first Prem boss to get the push

Newcastle United - Massively underachieved last season, and I'm not buying the injuries excuses either, it was the same for everybody else as well.  Take Guimaraes, Gordon and Isak out of that team, they are mediocre t best.  Callum Wilson injured again, (surprise surprise), he would get injured playing Scrabble!  7th at best.

Nottingham Forest - It's going to be a long hard season at the City Ground.  I think they'll stay up, just, because of Nuno at the helm and he should tell the owner to give him some funds rather than wasting it eating the whole restaurants from the city!

Southampton  - Going down.  Not good enough for the top tier.  I have a bit of a soft spot for them, and Russell Martin is a good coach, but where are the goals going to come from?

Tottenham - More mental football down at N17.  Lots of goals in attack but full of holes at the back as well.  Not totally convinced by Solanke, but certainly an improvement  on the hapless Richarlisson.  Again not sure exactly where they'll finish.

West Ham - Should be interesting there, not sure Lopetegui will give them the style of football their fans want, but their signings (Fulkrugg, Summreville and Wan-Bissaka) look good and they could have a promising campaign.

Wolves  -  I think they could be in trouble.  Neto and Kilman have gone, and their form fell off a cliff not long after they stuffed us at the Bridge.  They remind of Leicester over 20 years ago under Peter Taylor the way their form tailed off and continued into the following season.

 

 

 

 

 

[Sciatika]

I am still waiting to see them play in earnest. Apart from City, we have Servette twice and Wolves in between before the closing date of the questionnaire. That should give me some kind of idea of where we are and how we will do before Christmas. 

[chara]

3 hours ago, Sciatika said:

I am still waiting to see them play in earnest. Apart from City, we have Servette twice and Wolves in between before the closing date of the questionnaire. That should give me some kind of idea of where we are and how we will do before Christmas. 

Quiet words of wisdom as ever.

[Holymoly]

https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/2023-2024/2023-2024-Premier-League-Stats

If you look at the stats on this site it would suggest that there is no real deficiencies in our play last year. While we cry out for a striker, outside of City and Arsenal our rate of conversion is pretty much standard compared to the rest of the top 8. Similarly when we were bored senseless at times by the lack of penetrating midfield play it seems that overall we weren't that different from those clubs we would expect to compete with.

In other words while we concentrate on the disappointment of the season, overall statistically it was not unresonable. I think the issue isn't averages but rather the key moments when we were found lacking. In particular I'm thinking of the Cup results where we should really have won both but mentally we were not up to it.

Statistics. They can prove anything....or not.

[Sciatika]

Whoops, I missed the deadline. I'd say we're in the top four, semi-finals in one of the domestic cups and runner-up in the Conference. We will be shafted several times by the association, the officials, or ourselves. 

[My Blood Is Blue]

If we look to be getting top 4, I’m sure they’ll hand us a points deduction.

[blueboy1905]

It's quite simple really. If we don't qualify for Champions League from next season and beyond we'll be up shit street without a paddle.

[Sciatika]

6 hours ago, My Blood Is Blue said:

If we look to be getting top 4, I’m sure they’ll hand us a points deduction.

Especially if fifth and sixth are occupied by their favourite clubs from North London and the North-West.