Transfer Talk Topic

[paulw66]

45 minutes ago, martin1905 said:

. Not far of a billion pound spent yet we are in a better position financially than we were previously. 

 

Well, that is debatable. The economics of the transfer dealings since January have been very clever, especially as we have been able to flog north of 250m worth of unwanted players to offset the first couple of years' worth of accounting for the current crop, BUT.........we now have an annual commitment of circa 135m to cover these transfers over a 6-8 year period. We no longer have a stack of deadwood to move on each season.

We will need on field success, and or off the field financial success, to avoid having to keep selling. We should get it, but if something goes wrong, we could have challenges.

On the plus side, you cold argue that we wont need to buy another defender or midfield player for about 10 years! 

[Chelsea_Matt]

Just now, paulw66 said:

Well, that is debatable. The economics of the transfer dealings since January have been very clever, especially as we have been able to flog north of 250m worth of unwanted players to offset the first couple of years' worth of accounting for the current crop, BUT.........we now have an annual commitment of circa 135m to cover these transfers over a 6-8 year period. We no longer have a stack of deadwood to move on each season.

We will need on field success, and or off the field financial success, to avoid having to keep selling. We should get it, but if something goes wrong, we could have challenges.

On the plus side, you cold argue that we wont need to buy another defender or midfield player for about 10 years! 

That’s true. We’re going to have to deliver, big time.

[Thiago97]

1 minute ago, paulw66 said:

Well, that is debatable. The economics of the transfer dealings since January have been very clever, especially as we have been able to flog north of 250m worth of unwanted players to offset the first couple of years' worth of accounting for the current crop, BUT.........we now have an annual commitment of circa 135m to cover these transfers over a 6-8 year period. We no longer have a stack of deadwood to move on each season.

We will need on field success, and or off the field financial success, to avoid having to keep selling. We should get it, but if something goes wrong, we could have challenges.

On the plus side, you cold argue that we wont need to buy another defender or midfield player for about 10 years! 

what was the value of the Infiinte Athlete deal ? I presume this counts towards it over the length of whatever that deal is. Though I am a little suspicious if dark forces are at play, as to why this is not on the shirt yet.

[paulw66]

4 hours ago, Floyd25 said:

When you get a bit carried away on football manager.

10 central midfielders. Even with CL football back, that is probably 3 too many.

Would suggest Webster (for no other reason than we have bought players his age) and Gallagher (see above) are the most likely to move on in the short / medium term. 

[Thiago97]

2 minutes ago, paulw66 said:

10 central midfielders. Even with CL football back, that is probably 3 too many.

Would suggest Webster (for no other reason than we have bought players his age) and Gallagher (see above) are the most likely to move on in the short / medium term. 

I also get the impression there is probably one in there the club intend to flip for a profit. Not anyone specific player in mind, but I would have thought this line of thinking has taken place with some of these transfers, more specifically the younger players out on loan.

If FFP does start getting tight, flipping a player who cost say £15m for £30m and is not a immediate first team player would help 'lever' the situation.....to use a 'Barca' ism

[xceleryx]

3 minutes ago, Thiago97 said:

I also get the impression there is probably one in there the club intend to flip for a profit. Not anyone specific player in mind, but I would have thought this line of thinking has taken place with some of these transfers, more specifically the younger players out on loan.

If FFP does start getting tight, flipping a player who cost say £15m for £30m and is not a immediate first team player would help 'lever' the situation.....to use a 'Barca' ism

Was going to say this earlier and got sidetracked doing something else.

A lot of these young players we're purchasing around that £20m mark are easy profits from a FFP perspective should they not end up the level we need here. With most being on 5+ year deals, a £20m fee for example is at most going to be a £4m a year hit. If we sell some of these guys 2-3 or so years down the line their remaining book value will be peanuts at that moment. Which will mean it won't take big sale fees to generate FFP profits. 

 

[martin1905]

18 minutes ago, paulw66 said:

Well, that is debatable. The economics of the transfer dealings since January have been very clever, especially as we have been able to flog north of 250m worth of unwanted players to offset the first couple of years' worth of accounting for the current crop, BUT.........we now have an annual commitment of circa 135m to cover these transfers over a 6-8 year period. We no longer have a stack of deadwood to move on each season.

We will need on field success, and or off the field financial success, to avoid having to keep selling. We should get it, but if something goes wrong, we could have challenges.

On the plus side, you cold argue that we wont need to buy another defender or midfield player for about 10 years! 

Of course it all relies on us being successful on the pitch but that is something that I have no worries about. First game of the new season with a new manager, completely new team, without one of the key components being signed and one of, I'd argue THE most important player out injured and we completely and utterly dominated one of the top sides in the league, for an hour at least.

I have absolutely no doubt we will finish top 4 this season, I also have very little doubt this squad will challenge for the league in the next couple of years. City's cycle is coming to an end, every teams does, no matter how good they have been and we are as well placed as anyone to take over.

Something very special is happening, players like Caicedo and Lavia choosing us over Liverpool says an awful lot, the next side of things will be to get the off field finances in order and there will be major companies queuing up to want to be involved with us. It's the most exciting project the football world has ever seen and everyone is going to want to be involved.

[Sciatika]

(Repost- fixed an error)

Feel free to believe this or not. I have pulled some data on some of the possible outgoings. I am not judging whether their sale is a good idea. The fees and wages are from Spotrac. The fees include add-ons. The Book Value assumes linear depreciation across the lifetime of the contract. This simplifies because it should account for inflation, but I have a life. The market values are from TransferMarkt and might indicate what might be bid for the player. The residual salary is the amount of salary we would be paying for the remaining life of the contract if unsold. Our current annual salary bill is £161.5m. This does not include Caicedo.

Name	Age	Start	End	Fee	Dep. p.a	Book Value	Mkt Value	Salary	Rmng Sal.
Romelu Lukaku	30	2021	2026	126.50	25.30	75.90	34.50	16.90	50.7
Marc Cucurella	25	2022	2028	71.83	11.97	59.86	30.00	9.10	45.5
Conor Gallagher	23	2019	2025		0.00	0.00	27.50	2.60	5.2
Trevoh Chalobah	24	2019	2028		0.00	0.00	15.50	2.60	13
Hakim Ziyech	30	2020	2025	33.30	6.66	13.32	14.00	5.20	10.4
Callum Hudson-Odoi	22	2019	2024		0.00	0.00	13.00	6.24	6.24
Malang Sarr	24	2020	2025		0.00	0.00	5.00	6.24	12.48
Total							139.50	48.88	143.52

 

[Morgs]

Now that the euphoria and most of the jokes have died down, we are left to have a think about what has happened and what it means for us moving forward. 

Its that time of the morning where I have a cup of coffee, go through my emails and wait for my first meeting of the day. 

I have a few thoughts and predictions that I'd like to share with you. 

Have we painted a target on our backs? The FFP thing has been discussed ad nauseum and we can generally agree that we are ok and not in breach, despite the nasal indignant whining emanating from up the M6. The "loophole" we used to allow us to amortise signings over long periods has been slammed shut but not before we have largely rebuilt our squad so others cannot benefit. Whilst this is amusing to us, it will mean that we'll always have that hanging over our heads - that we used means and methods others were unable to, to allow us to build our squad. The media will not let anyone forget it. The FA will be under pressure to level the playing field (ie: in favour of the "big clubs" Arsenal, United and Liverpool but not us) and we can expect to get absolutely nothing out of them all season. 

Whether this extends to Reffing and VAR decisions is open to question. Taylor, our arch-nemesis lately, had an okay game on Sunday and this surprised nobody more than me. Not great but reasonably fair. I'd contend that would be the best we can expect this season and we will without a doubt see a lot more of those weird decisions go against us. Last night United vs Wolves was a classic case. There was no reason whatsoever for them not to give it and no reason whatsoever for VAR not to step in. Would they have given it had it been against us? You bet. What it demonstrates more than anything is that "mysterious" decisions are still very much in evidence and we'll see them in our games soon. With the open season on anti-Chelsea sentiment in the media, we are going to be up against it this season. Not a doubt in my mind. 

Whilst the spluttering, laughable un-self aware rage from the scousers is amusing, we need to understand that great swathes of the country and especially the media are Liverpool fans. They hated us before, but they are f**king incandescent now.

They have a habit of seeing everything through the refractory glass of a religious cult and as far as they are concerned, we have "mocked the prophet" so to speak. It undermines all that they believe: that they are god's chosen people, that they are the one true religion, they are different, special, better, more important and that "its Liverpool, this means more". What we did publicly rides roughshod over the core tenet of their beliefs. Chelsea, and especially Lavia and even more so Caicedo are apostates. They are heretics. They are therefore preordained to fail at Chelsea and with every missed chance or misplaced pass they will be all over them - their fans we can live with, but the media are much more dangerous.

We saw with Torres coming to us the unhealthy and frankly bizarre lengths the Liverpool-led media will go to get into his head, publicise every failure and create an air of "you failed because you deserve to fail" and "you turned your back on the true path and now you are being punished for it". We can expect at least this for both our new recruits. If either aren't absolutely world class from the moment they pull the jersey on, they will be utterly destroyed in the media. Will that be enough to cause them to fail? Lets hope not, although I maintain it was a big reason Torres struggled at Chelsea for a lot of his time at the club, so we should not kid ourselves that media pressure and a rather spiteful targeting from certain sections, is not capable of causing the same issues for Lavia and Caicedo.

The hope is Poch sees this and can protect them both. I worry a bit for Lavia, I must say. 

We have done most of our incoming business with the exception of a new 'Keeper. The squad is a little bloated and we still need to find permanent moves for CHO, Ziyech and The Cheesecake Factory. Ideally Cucurella and possibly Chalobah and (very regrettably) Gallagher as well. Then we have loans needed for Ugochukwu, Hall, Broja and a few others. There is still a lot of work to do. The exits are extremely important. We saw last season the damage unhappy and under-played playing staff can cause and Poch will be keen to avoid a repeat of this. Arguably, 66% of the three main protagonists of the misery and drama last season are still here. Getting both out of the club is hugely important business.  

The signings of Caicedo and - as it looks this morning - Lavia gives Poch a strength in depth we haven't had for many years.   You have Caicedo or Lavia (or Gallagher?) alongside Enzo or Santos (or Gallagher?) with Nkunku/Santos/Chukwuemeka (or Gallagher?) ahead of them. This basically weds us to a back four, with Colwill/Badiashile and Silva/Disasi the first choices in the middle flanked by Chilwell/Maatsen and James/Gusto. That is crazy strength in depth. But nonetheless a real test for Poch to keep everyone happy. 

We will still see teams sit back and try to press us out of the game but the team looks vastly stronger, fitter and more press-resistant now. Our front two or three will not have much room to work in and that is nothing new but part of the reason we struggled with it before was an inability to move the ball quickly from deep and the hope is our new look midfield will do a lot better at this. 

If you look at our next few games, they are very winnable. 

Wimbledon at home in the league cup an important tie to help bed in our new players and an opportunity for the likes of Madueke and Lavia to stake their claims.

Forest at home we need to win. 

Bournemouth away we need to win. 

Villa at home will be difficult but we should be winning that. 

Fulham away is unfinished business and we owe them big time for last season. 

Burnley away a difficult game but we should go there looking to take all three points, despite the hostility. 

Arsenal at home obviously a very difficult game but it isn't until the end of October and we have six games to settle in before then.  Avoid defeat here and we will be on a roll. 

Brentford at home, another fixture where their energy and pressing has caused us problems in the past but we should be looking to beat teams like this at home. 

If you look at these eight games you'd really only point to Arsenal as a game where we aren't favourites for the win. 

Beat Wimbledon, take 12 points (three wins two draws) from the 15 on offer from Forest, Burnley, Villa, Fulham and Bournemouth and get one against Arsenal and Bretford and we'll be in touch with the top sides going into November where we have a much more difficult run of games. 

November is Spurs away, City at home and Newcastle away which is more or less the nightmare run and we could lose all three. This is why it is important to really make the most of the coming fixtures or we could find ourselves adrift moving into December if we arent careful. 

Lots of work to do. 

 

 

 

[paulw66]

27 minutes ago, martin1905 said:

Of course it all relies on us being successful on the pitch but that is something that I have no worries about. First game of the new season with a new manager, completely new team, without one of the key components being signed and one of, I'd argue THE most important player out injured and we completely and utterly dominated one of the top sides in the league, for an hour at least.

I have absolutely no doubt we will finish top 4 this season, I also have very little doubt this squad will challenge for the league in the next couple of years. City's cycle is coming to an end, every teams does, no matter how good they have been and we are as well placed as anyone to take over.

Something very special is happening, players like Caicedo and Lavia choosing us over Liverpool says an awful lot, the next side of things will be to get the off field finances in order and there will be major companies queuing up to want to be involved with us. It's the most exciting project the football world has ever seen and everyone is going to want to be involved.

I share your optimism. Top 4 is not a given though......City, Arsenal, Newcastle, United will all have something to say. That's without Liverpool. Not worried about Spuds. 

The squad is in great shape to develop over the next few years. 

BTW, did anyone hear Danny Murphy on Talk Sport yesterday? Saying Lavia and Caicedo only chose Chelsea over Liverpool due to money, as in a straight race, Liverpool would be everyone's preference due to their global awareness and history. Living in the dark ages. Players of the age of Lavia and Caicedo would have experienced far more Chelsea success in their lifetime 

[Mark Kelly]

Just now, paulw66 said:

I share your optimism. Top 4 is not a given though......City, Arsenal, Newcastle, United will all have something to say. That's without Liverpool. Not worried about Spuds. 

The squad is in great shape to develop over the next few years. 

BTW, did anyone hear Danny Murphy on Talk Sport yesterday? Saying Lavia and Caicedo only chose Chelsea over Liverpool due to money, as in a straight race, Liverpool would be everyone's preference due to their global awareness and history. Living in the dark ages. Players of the age of Lavia and Caicedo would have experienced far more Chelsea success in their lifetime 

Danny Murphy , if he moved in next door your lawn would die of boredom

[Floyd25]

1 hour ago, paulw66 said:

10 central midfielders. Even with CL football back, that is probably 3 too many.

Would suggest Webster (for no other reason than we have bought players his age) and Gallagher (see above) are the most likely to move on in the short / medium term. 

Agree that Webster and Gallagher have no real long term future here, I also feel that Ugochukwu will be sold for profit and I fear Lewis Hall leaves permanently too, unless his future is at left back or left wing, Newcastle are apparently interested in him since his new contract and loan to palace has stalled. One of Santos, Chuckwuemeka or Casadei will have to move on as well within the next year or so. 

[CarefreeMuratcan]

Players choosing us over Liverpool has turned into a moral panic haha. I love it. 

[paulw66]

Just now, CarefreeMuratcan said:

Players choosing us over Liverpool has turned into a moral panic haha. I love it. 

https://www.football365.com/news/moises-caicedo-should-joined-liverpool-chelsea-lost-oxford-1985

[CarefreeMuratcan]

1 hour ago, paulw66 said:

I share your optimism. Top 4 is not a given though......City, Arsenal, Newcastle, United will all have something to say. That's without Liverpool. Not worried about Spuds. 

Hopefully 5th gets CL as well if England is a Top 2 performing league in Europe this season, would leave us some room for error. But honestly, the Enzo-Caicedo midfield is such a monster partnership, I see us getting Top 4 more comfortably than most predictions seem to have us at. 

[thevelourfog]

2 hours ago, paulw66 said:

BUT.........we now have an annual commitment of circa 135m to cover these transfers over a 6-8 year period. We no longer have a stack of deadwood to move on each season.

Quite, we've massively increased our long term financial liabilities. And it is not all about FFP*, which is basically a game we play on Excel with UEFA and the PL. Cash flow and money in the bank is far, far more important to the ongoing success and very existence of the club. There are already rumblings of that being a complication (new investors being sought) 15 months into this ownership. We should not be getting too giddy about our financial position, imo. We've made some absolutely huge bets and there will be trouble if more than a few don't come off. I also foresee us being much more agreeable, and indeed needing to be, when it comes to selling star players in future. 

The squad is, though, looking very promising. Huge cause for optimism there. 

*Also worth considering FFP may not survive, in its current form at least, a few years of unrestricted Saudi Pro League spending. When they successfully come for big names the European giants don't want to sell, I think we'll see a big push against FFP.

Edited August 15, 2023 by thevelourfog

[Mark Kelly]

7 minutes ago, paulw66 said:

https://www.football365.com/news/moises-caicedo-should-joined-liverpool-chelsea-lost-oxford-1985

Weapons grade idiocy from another Liverpool media fanboi , comedy gold.

[paulw66]

3 minutes ago, Mark Kelly said:

Weapons grade idiocy from another Liverpool media fanboi , comedy gold.

I like the way they dissected his comments for the nonsense they were. 

[chrisb]

4 minutes ago, Mark Kelly said:

Weapons grade idiocy from another Liverpool media fanboi , comedy gold.

Quite. If Aldridge was a water company he’d be bankrupt due to the amount of raw sewage that he pumps out. 

[ROTG]

3 hours ago, martin1905 said:

I'm not sure anyone would have realistically thought we would go head to head with Liverpool for two key targets this summer and come out on top, both times.

We will probably never know why but its so refreshing and bodes extremely well for the future. 

I said a good few weeks ago how well the TBSD had done getting rid of the unwanted, for some very good money and if they did half as well in terms of incomings we would have had one hell of a window. Well, they haven't done half as well, they've blown it out of the water. 

Quite possibly, in terms of ins and outs, the greatest transfer window in the history of football. 

No longer need to wait to see how it goes @ROTG, the TBSD has gone above anyone's expectations. I'm sure you will still want to wait to make sure we haven't signed Brighton level players but, let's be honest, we blatantly haven't. We've assembled a squad in a matter of weeks that will finish top 4 and challenge for the league in the next couple of seasons.

The TBSD have done so well they've made the governing bodies of Europe and now England change the rules as we've abliterated the market yet easily fall within FFP. Not far of a billion pound spent yet we are in a better position financially than we were previously. 

 

Love your positivity and your like's/Agree  supporters "rinse and repeat"

As i  have said on many occasion, more than happy to hold my hand up if wrong, however I am not going to cream my pants and tell the congregation the team is the best thing since sunblest, over one game, when there are another 37 to go. Nor over the new players, especially the latest recruit who was an overpriced piece of garbage who Poch didn't want according many including yourself last Friday morning

Anyway one of us will be giving coin to the forum subscription fund at the end of the season

Toodles  and lets move on

[Miguelito07]

Rumours that Newcastle want Hall - not sure as a loan or permanent. 

[Bob Singleton]

19 minutes ago, Mark Kelly said:

Weapons grade idiocy from another Liverpool media fanboi , comedy gold.

This was him prior to the 2015-16 Europa League Final. Sevilla beat Liverpool 3-1 to win the trophy for a third year in a row and for a (then) fifth time overall.

 

Edited August 15, 2023 by Bob Singleton
Typo

[Mark Kelly]

7 minutes ago, Miguelito07 said:

Rumours that Newcastle want Hall - not sure as a loan or permanent. 

I wouldn't loan them Hall , they're cash rich FFP poor , let them work it out without our help and if they then decide they want Cucurella they can include a mandatory purchase at the end of the loan or no dice.

[Floyd25]

49 minutes ago, paulw66 said:

https://www.football365.com/news/moises-caicedo-should-joined-liverpool-chelsea-lost-oxford-1985

Bless Aldridge, it’s always impossible for him to think that life doesn’t revolve around Liverpool, he can’t fathom a world where there’s players who actually don’t want to join them. A lot of them are like that, our tradition, our history, poor little me yada yada yada pathetic. 

Edited August 15, 2023 by Floyd25

[Morgs]

7 minutes ago, Mark Kelly said:

I wouldn't loan them Hall , they're cash rich FFP poor , let them work it out without our help and if they then decide they want Cucurella they can include a mandatory purchase at the end of the loan or no dice.

I actually think Cucurella will do okay up there - Newcastle will be getting hit on the break less than we do and they will need his overlapping runs.  They move the ball a lot faster than we did last season so his passing range and the speed he pings the ball around  would work for them.

Whilst limited, he is honest, he does work hard and he does wear his heart on his sleeve. He's the sort of player they really take to up there.  If we send him there on loan I reckon he would be okay.