Transfer Talk Topic

[Ham]

3 hours ago, Max Fowler said:

Here's another question for those who are more positive about our transfer window - (Ham, Celery etc.)

Where would be an acceptable / expected / overachieving league finish in your eyes that would justify that the owners have done a good job this summer? Obviously we also have January still to judge as well.

But given you have more patience with the project - what would you be happy with 5th? 8th? 10th?

 

I wish it was this simple.  My positivity comes from the state of the squad available if we had no injuries. It looks exciting and well balanced.

Our full strength squad is capable of top 4 in my opinion.

As things stand today with key injuries, I'm temporarily concerned but that doesn't detract from the excellent work done in the past two windows by the much-maligned TBSD.

My issue on here is with those who have taken a position against TBSD early and who now criticise every aspect of the ownership and massively downplay the quality of our squad. 

Take Odegaard and Saka out of the Arsenal team and they are outside of the CL picture. 

[Morgs]

4 hours ago, Max Fowler said:

Here's another question for those who are more positive about our transfer window - (Ham, Celery etc.)

Where would be an acceptable / expected / overachieving league finish in your eyes that would justify that the owners have done a good job this summer? Obviously we also have January still to judge as well.

But given you have more patience with the project - what would you be happy with 5th? 8th? 10th?

 

6th and a cup run would be a good season.

Honestly I cant see it right now. We've got a crap keeper who is a liability that teams will target, and who will instill panic in the back line which will lead to us making mistakes at the back. We still don't have a decent striker and we still don't have the creativity in the side to break down the 17/20 sides who put ten men behind the ball when they play us. 

We still have too many players in the side and the club seemingly still wants to sell Maatsen, Gallagher and Chalobah. Morale will be poor,  you can already see it with Mudryk and Maatsen. This will spread like a cancer and they'll down tools like the players always do.

Poch is already under pressure and I honestly believe the moment Nkunku's ACL went it sealed his fate - Poch will be gone by Easter. 

We have an almighty struggle on our hands to hold onto Enzo, James and Colwill and I think all three will go for big money in the summer to teams at the top of the league that can offer stability and CL football. We are miles and miles away from both. 

I think we will be looking nervously over our shoulders at a relegation scrap come Easter time, rather than trying to force our way into top four/five. 

Without being too obtuse, we don't even know half the problems the club has right now because they haven't come to light yet but Ive changed my whole view on things in the last few weeks. 

I did think the transfer window was amazing for Chelsea and that we'd be challenging for top four. It WAS a great transfer window but didn't address three glaring weaknesses in the side which will be ruthlessly and repeatedly punished by every other team this season, week in week out and these are not things Poch can manage his way out of. He's a good manger but can only work with what he has (bizarre as that is to say given how much we've spent) and he doesn't have a decent goalkeeper or a decent striker, and we still have too many players. Jackson I had high hopes for but he has a touch of the Kezman about him doesn't he? Everything's a hard luck story, nothing ever goes right,  hapless, his first touch is dreadful and the pressure gets in his head - he sh*ts himself when the chance falls at his feet.  All we have achieved this summer is to long off the troublemakers and most (but not all) the dead wood which is positive and then spent a billion quid in gold to put in a huge gilded bucket with a hole in the bottom and a dodgy handle that does pop off at inopportune moments. 

I was really positive but sadly all I see is the same as last season only with more money and less Ziyech. 

Poch will not last the season because he cant get 20 goals a season out of Jackson or a decent Prem standard keeper out of Sanchez. 

We saw last season the importance of inertia. 

Bad thing happens, we lose a game. Mood darkens, fingers are pointed. We lose another game. Players down tools. Bad thing happens, we lose a game. Mood darkens, fingers are pointed. Players down tools. Rinse repeat. 

Our squad last season had no right whatsoever to be anywhere near the drop zone but had the season gone on for just three more weeks we'd be playing Championship football this season. Our squad now has no right whatsoever in any eventuality in being anywhere near the relegation places but I assure you, the downward trajectory is such that we'll continue to suffer devastating injuries, continue to not slot teams away and continue to get beat by the likes of Forest because we don't have a keeper or a striker.  Sterling cannot carry us all season. Poch will go eventually, the players will see that the club hasn't made any progress and is nowhere near the CL places and we'll end up with another massive clearout next summer - Mudryk will be first, mark my words. Gallagher, Chalobah, Maatsen, Enzo and Colwil will not be far behind. 

Sorry its a bit negative but its honestly how I feel. I think we have an incredibly painful and attritional few months coming up. 

So yeah, 6th and a cup run would be a great season but I think we'll struggle to do better than 12th. I'll say 11th if I had to predict just so the media can write the "1bn quid spent to go up one place in the table" headlines. 

 

Edited September 13, 2023 by Morgs

[Ham]

11 minutes ago, thevelourfog said:

It must be bad, in the space of 5 minutes you liked two of my posts and responded positively to another!

 

I blame the medication. 

[Ham]

5 minutes ago, Morgs said:

 

Sorry its a bit negative but its honestly how I feel. I think we have an incredibly painful and attritional few months coming up. 

 

A bit?!?

[ROTG]

49 minutes ago, Thiago97 said:

My answer on this is that they would probably give things 2-3 seasons before they start getting approached by major European clubs and may want to move on.

If that happens. These major European clubs are going to need to some serious transfer budgets, because both are clearly going to be positive assets for the club, and likely our two stand out players. Both of them are also on very long contracts.

I see little to worry about because unless clubs have £150m available to spend, they are unlikely to be going anywhere soon. Their value only goes up at Chelsea on these contracts, unless they stink the place out on the pitch, which is unlikely.

I only see a handful of major European options available, unless they want to find themselves in Saudi league.

Or they do a cacedio or Enzo did the their previous clubs and tell Chelsea they are moving regardless 

It's now a players world not the club's and contracts. 7 years might seem a good idea of  binding someone and getting top dollar, however as seen with the Pillsbury dough boy who the club can't give away.  contracts ain't worth the paper they are written on. If a player wants out he's going. 

[martin1905]

3 minutes ago, ROTG said:

Or they do a cacedio or Enzo did the their previous clubs and tell Chelsea they are moving regardless 

It's now a players world not the club's and contracts. 7 years might seem a good idea of  binding someone and getting top dollar, however as seen with the Pillsbury dough boy who the club can't give away.  contracts ain't worth the paper they are written on. If a player wants out he's going. 

I'd imagine the players we have signed are all fully aware that this was going to take some time. It's a project, whether or not we've got enough right to see it through is another matter.

It's easy to think some will want to jump ship already but in two or three years we may have the best team in Europe. I certainly don't see any other team trying to attempt what we are. The whole process is about getting Infront of the rest to become the next dominant team, not to compete straight away.

As you like to say, best to wait and see, especially before speculating on hypotheticals.

[Morgs]

27 minutes ago, ROTG said:

Or they do a cacedio or Enzo did the their previous clubs and tell Chelsea they are moving regardless 

It's now a players world not the club's and contracts. 7 years might seem a good idea of  binding someone and getting top dollar, however as seen with the Pillsbury dough boy who the club can't give away.  contracts ain't worth the paper they are written on. If a player wants out he's going. 

Thing is we have a little touch of the arrogance that most football fans have when it comes to the selective myopia of their club's relative value proposition in terms of player appeal. 

If you're Enzo, Colwill, Caicedo or Maatsen you've just endured a horrible season of us getting beat week in week out by sh*t teams we should be slotting away, in a dressing room filled with players who aren't at your level or are unhappy and creating disharmony, getting booed off half the time and slated in the press, for a club that bins off their manager at least once a season you aren't exactly jumping for joy. Your mates and contemporaries are all playing CL football and you haven't got a prayer of doing that at Chelsea. 

Then Bayern, City, Real or a club of their ilk come calling.

They offer you:

 

* Stability

* A world class manager who you are likely to work with for longer than a couple of months

* More money 

* Champions League football for a team that might actually win it 

* Trophies

* Much better sponsorship deals

* The chance to improve as a player amongst genuinely world class players 

* Not having to slog your guts out every week against big, physical teams who stick ten men behind the ball against you. 

* the chance to build a legacy at a genuinely massive club, objectively bigger and with a richer history than Chelsea, some may feel. 

* the chance to play at an absolutely incredible stadium 

* the chance to work with the best medical staff, fitness specialists, nutritionists, psychiatrists and coaches to push yourself to do better, be better etc

* the opportunity to play for a club that are loved and adored, given adulation and respect in the media instead of "the evil empire" who everyone hates and who everyone thinks everyone who plays for them are only there for the money. 

 

Who on earth turns that down over Chelsea? Are you mad?  "The bright lights of London" don't count for as much as we sometimes think they do. 

People say Reece James is "proper Chels" and that may be so but is he going to choose King Nothing over all that out of loyalty to the club?  I think he may end up disappointing a lot who think he would.  And I'd suggest if you are expecting the club to turn down mega money for any of these, you'll be equally disappointed. 

Edited September 13, 2023 by Morgs

[Willian Dollar Baby]

8 hours ago, xceleryx said:

You're basing your entire argument on an "if". There's been no suggestion that we'll play 4-3-3. I could turn around and say "If we play a narrow christmas tree system then we're going to need those midfield numbers for extra midfield spots". I've no basis for that claim, much like you with yours. It's a hypothetical and there's really no point discussing such a thing for obvious reasons. 

"Talent hoarding" can certainly work depending on the end result desired. I've addressed this before but a lot of the talent we've picked up are in that sort of £20m price range with low wages. Now, maybe we strike lucky on a couple and they end up being first team players for us moving forward. Maybe some just don't need up as good as we need. Those one or two players that end up good enough will have been picked up for an absolute steal, and will have no double vastly increased in value. Those not good enough will have also likely increased in value purely because of the way football inflation is. Someone like Santos for example, if he was sold tomorrow would fetch a fee beyond the £18m we originally paid. Similar could likely be done already with players like Casadei and Chukwuemeka also. As long as these types of players are purchased at a more manageable price point they'll likely generate profits if sold down the line.

Now it's obviously important for young players to play to maximise their development, some will and are getting that opportunity here, others will do so out on loan. We got blindsided a little with Kepa, because that only materialised because of Courtios injury. We could have of course said no, but the player wanted to leave and a good portion of the fan base have been wanting Kepa out for years, we also save a year of his massive wages. Lukaku's situation hasn't helped either, a nice little gift from the previous regime if you will. A loan was always going to be the likely solution purely because of what he earns and such little interest. Then Ziyech drew little himself for a full on sale, so a loan and clearing wages was the next best thing. If there's no interest in these players for permanent moves then loaning them out is the next best alternative, unless you'd rather keep them here and have that disruption?

Re Chalobah. It's a lot of spilt milk over nothing IMO. Don't get me wrong I like Chalobah, sung his praises early in the piece when he played under Tuchel, but let's not pretend he's anything overly special either. He's certainly not kicked on since debuting, he's definitely not starting calibre, and analysing him as a player there's not a whole lot he does that stands out. He's god awful in the air, has lapses in concentration and thus prone to mistakes and silly fouls, and doesn't really provide a whole lot that impacts general play. He also spends his fair amount of time out injured. If we're looking at our defensive options he's certainly at the bottom end of the pecking order so I don't necessarily see the issue with trying to move him on - academy lad or otherwise, it changes none of the above. 

Also the headline of the tweet is a little misleading to say the least, as is the article itself, but that's the media these days. Gotta generate that shock value for clicks. 

Whichever formation we play there's too many bodies is the point. 4231? Lavia, Ugochukwu, Chuk and Gallagher are all struggling for minutes. 

Buy cheap, sell high just doesn't work when you buy on this scale. There isn't enough space in our squad, or enough loan slots to give all these players minutes. It works for Brighton because they provide a clear pathway for their signings to get minutes.

For example, loaning Andre Santos to Forest was clearly a late panic move after using up the foreign loan spots. Since then Forest have spent £45million on two new CMs. Who is going to buy Santos for over £18million when he sits on the bench at Forest for the next year? 

The single most important thing for young players is minutes. CHO, Ampadu, and Gilmour are all great examples of what happens to player values when that doesn't happen. 

It's pretty simple on Kepa. How many other clubs loan out their number 1 GK to help out another club that's desperate? Buy him outright or look elsewhere. Getting his wages off the books for one season doesn't help us next summer when he returns again and we have three first team GKs.

If we couldn't make any money off Ziyech we should have just released him, he's out of contract at the end of the loan spell anyway. Instead Chalobah could have gone on loan to Bayern or elsewhere and significantly improved his value. Maybe Ugochukwu could have gone out and left some space for Lavia to play here. They now share the minutes and noones happy. 

Agree to disagree on Chalobah's quality. 24 year old centre back who can also cover RB and DM to a premier league standard. Likely on low wages and has performed excellently for the most part, with a few inconsistencies that should be expected from a young player. Gallagher is a similar example, both are adaptable and perfect squad players but we would rather spend big on a shiny new toy. 

Re: Positivity. It is tough to stay positive when the club has been such a mess since the new owners took charge. They've certainly committed by spending big but I do worry when we are spending such big fees and giving out 8 year contracts that this will all come back to bite us. They are venture capital investors so this isn't a bottomless pit of money, at some point the tap will stop and we will need to work with what we have.

They've already pushed Mount and Hall out whilst Chalobah, Gallagher and Maatsen are likely next out the door. Selling off academy players to fund big new signings every year is not a sustainable strategy. Particularly when so many have already flopped. 

This summer I was initially impressed given the scale of players we shifted although was annoyed that Mount got pushed out. I do believe that we've bought some good players and a good manager however have also spent a fortune on players we absolutely do not need that will probably never play for us. The concern is that despite the money, there are still massive holes in this team. 

Should Poch get a few wins I'm sure everyone will quickly provide more optimism however we do need to see some improvement on the pitch. It is okay to call a spade a spade after all, we are still in 12th place. 

Edited September 13, 2023 by Willian Dollar Baby

[Morgs]

3 minutes ago, Willian Dollar Baby said:

Whichever formation we play there's too many bodies is the point. 4231? Lavia, Ugochukwu, Chuk and Gallagher are all struggling for minutes. 

Buy cheap, sell high just doesn't work when you buy on this scale. There isn't enough space in our squad, or enough loan slots to give all these players minutes. It works for Brighton because they provide a clear pathway for their signings to get minutes.

For example, loaning Andre Santos to Forest was clearly a late panic move after using up the foreign loan spots. Since then Forest have spent £45million on two new CMs. Who is going to buy Santos for over £18million when he sits on the bench at Forest for the next year? 

The single most important thing for young players is minutes. CHO, Ampadu, and Gilmour are all great examples of what happens to player values when that doesn't happen. 

It's pretty simple on Kepa. How many other clubs loan out their number 1 GK to help out another club that's desperate? Buy him outright or look elsewhere. Getting his wages off the books for one season doesn't help us next summer when he returns again and we have three first team GKs. If we couldn't make any money off Ziyech we should have just released him, he's out of contract at the end of the loan spell anyway. Instead Chalobah could have gone on loan to Bayern or elsewhere and significantly improved his value. Maybe Ugochukwu could have gone out and left some space for Lavia to play here. They now share the minutes and noones happy. 

Agree to disagree on Chalobah's quality. 24 year old centre back who can also cover RB and DM to a premier league standard. Likely on low wages and has performed excellently for the most part, with a few inconsistencies that should be expected from a young player. Gallagher is a similar example, both are adaptable and perfect squad players but we would rather spend big on a shiny new toy. 

Re: Positivity. It is tough to stay positive when the club has been such a mess since the new owners took charge. They've certainly committed by spending big but I do worry when we are spending such big fees and giving out 8 year contracts that this will all come back to bite us. They are venture capital investors so this isn't a bottomless pit of money, at some point the tap will stop and we will need to work with what we have.

They've already pushed Mount and Hall out whilst Chalobah, Gallagher and Maatsen are likely next out the door. Selling off academy players to fund big new signings every year is not a sustainable strategy. Particularly when so many have already flopped. 

This summer I was initially impressed given the scale of players we shifted although was annoyed that Mount got pushed out. I do believe that we've bought some good players and a good manager however have also spent a fortune on players we absolutely do not need that will probably never play for us. The concern is that despite the money, there are still massive holes in this team. 

Should Poch get a few wins I'm sure everyone will quickly provide more optimism however we do need to see some improvement on the pitch. It is okay to call a spade a spade after all, we are still in 12th place. 

Solid logic and well-written. I agree with pretty much all of it. 

[ROTG]

1 hour ago, Ham said:

Take Odegaard and Saka out of the Arsenal team and they are outside of the CL picture. 

One came from the academy, the other they had a season on loan before buying.

 

1 hour ago, martin1905 said:

As you like to say, best to wait and see, especially before speculating on hypotheticals.

Agreed - Revisit time is mid December, when the team has played most of the bigger boys and girls

[martin1905]

11 minutes ago, ROTG said:

One came from the academy, the other they had a season on loan before buying.

 

Agreed - Revisit time is mid December, when the team has played most of the bigger boys and girls

I was thinking more, revisit it in two or three years....

[Morgs]

At the risk of getting mired in negativity, lets have a look at the fixtures we've got coming up before the end of the year. 

Bournemouth away 

Villa at home

Brighton at home (league cup)

Fulham away

Burnley away

Arsenal at home

Brentford at home

Spurs away

City at home

Newcastle away

Brighton at home

Man United away

Everton away

Sheff United at home 

Wolves away

Palace at home

Luton away

 

OK, so I think we win at Fulham and Luton, beat Sheff United and Palace at home.

Draws at Bournemouth, Burnley and Wolves and with Brentford at the Bridge. 

We go out of the league cup to Brighton and get beat at home by Villa,  Arsenal, Brighton again and City. We lose away at Spurs, Newcastle, Everton and Man United. 

16 pts from 16 games/48pts on offer. We go into 2024 with 20 pts on the board. 

Anyone got a rosier outlook? 

 

[Ham]

23 minutes ago, Morgs said:

At the risk of getting mired in negativity, lets have a look at the fixtures we've got coming up before the end of the year. 

Bournemouth away 

Villa at home

Brighton at home (league cup)

Fulham away

Burnley away

Arsenal at home

Brentford at home

Spurs away

City at home

Newcastle away

Brighton at home

Man United away

Everton away

Sheff United at home 

Wolves away

Palace at home

Luton away

 

OK, so I think we win at Fulham and Luton, beat Sheff United and Palace at home.

Draws at Bournemouth, Burnley and Wolves and with Brentford at the Bridge. 

We go out of the league cup to Brighton and get beat at home by Villa,  Arsenal, Brighton again and City. We lose away at Spurs, Newcastle, Everton and Man United. 

16 pts from 16 games/48pts on offer. We go into 2024 with 20 pts on the board. 

Anyone got a rosier outlook? 

 

Yes. Me.  We beat Burnley, Brentford, Wolves, Villa and Bournemouth.

We also get something at Spurs, Newcastle and Everton. 

 

[Ham]

41 minutes ago, ROTG said:

One came from the academy, the other they had a season on loan before buying.

 

I'm not sure what your point is here. We've also lost crucial academy players. The captain being the main one.  

[Morgs]

5 minutes ago, Ham said:

Yes. Me.  We beat Burnley, Brentford, Wolves, Villa and Bournemouth.

We also get something at Spurs, Newcastle and Everton. 

 

God I hope you are right my friend. That would be amazing. 

[Dwmh]

30 minutes ago, Morgs said:

At the risk of getting mired in negativity, lets have a look at the fixtures we've got coming up before the end of the year. 

Bournemouth away 

Villa at home

Brighton at home (league cup)

Fulham away

Burnley away

Arsenal at home

Brentford at home

Spurs away

City at home

Newcastle away

Brighton at home

Man United away

Everton away

Sheff United at home 

Wolves away

Palace at home

Luton away

 

OK, so I think we win at Fulham and Luton, beat Sheff United and Palace at home.

Draws at Bournemouth, Burnley and Wolves and with Brentford at the Bridge. 

We go out of the league cup to Brighton and get beat at home by Villa,  Arsenal, Brighton again and City. We lose away at Spurs, Newcastle, Everton and Man United. 

16 pts from 16 games/48pts on offer. We go into 2024 with 20 pts on the board. 

Anyone got a rosier outlook? 

 

That is what worries me.  If we don't win 4 of the next 5 easy games (having won one out of the last 3 easy games) we'll be having a season like last year with all of our senior players spending Christmas onwards looking for new clubs.

You can always move on after losing to top 6 clubs.

[Morgs]

4 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

That is what worries me.  If we don't win 4 of the next 5 easy games (having won one out of the last 3 easy games) we'll be having a season like last year with all of our senior players spending Christmas onwards looking for new clubs.

You can always move on after losing to top 6 clubs.

This is basically my point. 

[Thiago97]

2 hours ago, ROTG said:

Or they do a cacedio or Enzo did the their previous clubs and tell Chelsea they are moving regardless 

It's now a players world not the club's and contracts. 7 years might seem a good idea of  binding someone and getting top dollar, however as seen with the Pillsbury dough boy who the club can't give away.  contracts ain't worth the paper they are written on. If a player wants out he's going. 

I don’t dispute the players holds the power. The Lukaku situation is different though. Not many clubs wanted him, so his options were quite limited.

If a top club wants Enzo or Caicedo, they will have to pay top dollar and more than what we paid. 
 

The two situations are not comparable. If they stay 2 - 3 seasons and decide we have not progressed enough and they want to move on. We will be getting financially rewarded for these players and we then have to go and find their replacements. I’m past the days of getting too attached to players on a personal level. The game has moved in such a clinical business way, you have no choice but to align your thought processes in the same way as a fan these days. 
 

The only way we do not profit from them moving on, is if they end up being a disaster on the pitch. 

[Thiago97]

52 minutes ago, Morgs said:

At the risk of getting mired in negativity, lets have a look at the fixtures we've got coming up before the end of the year. 

Bournemouth away 

Villa at home

Brighton at home (league cup)

Fulham away

Burnley away

Arsenal at home

Brentford at home

Spurs away

City at home

Newcastle away

Brighton at home

Man United away

Everton away

Sheff United at home 

Wolves away

Palace at home

Luton away

 

OK, so I think we win at Fulham and Luton, beat Sheff United and Palace at home.

Draws at Bournemouth, Burnley and Wolves and with Brentford at the Bridge. 

We go out of the league cup to Brighton and get beat at home by Villa,  Arsenal, Brighton again and City. We lose away at Spurs, Newcastle, Everton and Man United. 

16 pts from 16 games/48pts on offer. We go into 2024 with 20 pts on the board. 

Anyone got a rosier outlook? 

 

The margins are so fine between many clubs and individual players in the PL these days, I find it almost impossible to predict results in this manner anymore.

I think a good 12-14 teams in the PL are difficult to predict any further than on a game by game basis. We are certainly one of those 12-14 teams. 

[Sciatika]

41 minutes ago, Morgs said:

At the risk of getting mired in negativity, lets have a look at the fixtures we've got coming up before the end of the year. 

Bournemouth away 

Villa at home

Brighton at home (league cup)

Fulham away

Burnley away

Arsenal at home

Brentford at home

Spurs away

City at home

Newcastle away

Brighton at home

Man United away

Everton away

Sheff United at home 

Wolves away

Palace at home

Luton away

 

OK, so I think we win at Fulham and Luton, beat Sheff United and Palace at home.

Draws at Bournemouth, Burnley and Wolves and with Brentford at the Bridge. 

We go out of the league cup to Brighton and get beat at home by Villa,  Arsenal, Brighton again and City. We lose away at Spurs, Newcastle, Everton and Man United. 

16 pts from 16 games/48pts on offer. We go into 2024 with 20 pts on the board. 

Anyone got a rosier outlook? 

 

I think it possible that we beat most of Bournemouth (A), Villa (H), Fulham (A), Burnley (A), Brentford (H), Everton (A), Man Utd (A), Sheff Utd(H), Wolves (A), Palace (H), Luton (A). I think Spurs (A), Arsenal (H), and Newcastle (A) will be drawn/lost. I think we will also lose to City (H). I expect we will also lose to Brighton at home because it's the league cup, and we will rest players while they treat it like the cup final. Let's say 26 points from 48 (8W, 2D, 6L), and enter the New Year on 30 points. I don't think that's unrealistic, especially as many of our players will be back by then (excluding Fofana, and possibly Lavia).

I also think that we will have a better second half to the season because I think our top level is above the top level of the other clubs.

[xceleryx]

2 hours ago, Willian Dollar Baby said:

Whichever formation we play there's too many bodies is the point. 4231? Lavia, Ugochukwu, Chuk and Gallagher are all struggling for minutes. 

Buy cheap, sell high just doesn't work when you buy on this scale. There isn't enough space in our squad, or enough loan slots to give all these players minutes. It works for Brighton because they provide a clear pathway for their signings to get minutes.

For example, loaning Andre Santos to Forest was clearly a late panic move after using up the foreign loan spots. Since then Forest have spent £45million on two new CMs. Who is going to buy Santos for over £18million when he sits on the bench at Forest for the next year? 

The single most important thing for young players is minutes. CHO, Ampadu, and Gilmour are all great examples of what happens to player values when that doesn't happen. 

It's pretty simple on Kepa. How many other clubs loan out their number 1 GK to help out another club that's desperate? Buy him outright or look elsewhere. Getting his wages off the books for one season doesn't help us next summer when he returns again and we have three first team GKs.

If we couldn't make any money off Ziyech we should have just released him, he's out of contract at the end of the loan spell anyway. Instead Chalobah could have gone on loan to Bayern or elsewhere and significantly improved his value. Maybe Ugochukwu could have gone out and left some space for Lavia to play here. They now share the minutes and noones happy. 

Agree to disagree on Chalobah's quality. 24 year old centre back who can also cover RB and DM to a premier league standard. Likely on low wages and has performed excellently for the most part, with a few inconsistencies that should be expected from a young player. Gallagher is a similar example, both are adaptable and perfect squad players but we would rather spend big on a shiny new toy. 

Re: Positivity. It is tough to stay positive when the club has been such a mess since the new owners took charge. They've certainly committed by spending big but I do worry when we are spending such big fees and giving out 8 year contracts that this will all come back to bite us. They are venture capital investors so this isn't a bottomless pit of money, at some point the tap will stop and we will need to work with what we have.

They've already pushed Mount and Hall out whilst Chalobah, Gallagher and Maatsen are likely next out the door. Selling off academy players to fund big new signings every year is not a sustainable strategy. Particularly when so many have already flopped. 

This summer I was initially impressed given the scale of players we shifted although was annoyed that Mount got pushed out. I do believe that we've bought some good players and a good manager however have also spent a fortune on players we absolutely do not need that will probably never play for us. The concern is that despite the money, there are still massive holes in this team. 

Should Poch get a few wins I'm sure everyone will quickly provide more optimism however we do need to see some improvement on the pitch. It is okay to call a spade a spade after all, we are still in 12th place. 

Maybe if EVERYONE is fit there may be a fight for minutes irrespective of formation, but the reality is that's unlikely to be the case and certainly isn't right now. Some of these players are also capable across several positions - Lavia can fill both pivot roles, Gallagher is playing deeper so far but can also play that AM role if we wanted. Chukwuemeka is more of an attacking midfielder, leaving Ugo as the only real singular position player as he's very much a DM. 

It can work, just by the nature of the way football inflation is. Players don't necessarily need to play to see their value raise depending on what they were purchased for previously. A players value can immediately raise just by joining a bigger club. 

Santos wouldn't need to play extensively at Forest to see his value climb. Again, just by joining us his market value would've increased because of what we paid and the step up he's made. Then you take into consideration his reputation as a bright talent for his age, his general talent itself, along with his efforts with the Brazilian U/21's, there would be other clubs willing to pay for that. 

Minutes are important, not claimed otherwise, but your examples aren't great ones either. Hudson-Odoi was ruined because of injuries and a lack of adapting afterwards, Ampadu was just never as good as he originally looked and that was shown across his various loans over the years, and Gilmour requires a fair degree of catering. None of these lost value because they didn't play.

You'd have kept Kepa here against his wishes then and took your chances with an unhappy player? Because that's seemingly what you're proposing. We're not going to extend Kepa either way, not unless he was to take a hefty pay cut. Nor is a club likely to pay any sort of sum to sign him when his wages are what they are. So if we're not likely to keep him then the ability to save 12 months worth of wages has appeal. 

Releasing a player costs us money, unless both parties agree to zero compensation being paid. With Ziyech drawing so little interest, a loan basically allowed us to clear his wages for the season and in essence freed us of his contract a season earlier. 

There's nothing to suggest Chalobah can play DM to a Premier League standard to be fair, the one game he did play there for us (against Wolves IIRC), he was atrocious. And sure, he's a solid enough defender across two positions but it's not as if he pulls up trees either. We've got better players ahead of him, whether it's in terms of general ability or by having more useful attributes that serve our system in a greater manner. If he wasn't from the academy I guarantee you people would jump at taking £35m or so for a fringe squad player that doesn't move the needle and has his own injury issues. 

Re positivity. I suppose it all hinges on how you wish you look at the situation as a whole. Not everyone is going to see what's been undertaken from the same angle, and that's entirely fine. But there's also some that are incredibly quick to jump on the doom and gloom train. Whether it's because they don't like the approach taken, they can't wrap their heads around the direction chosen, or are so used to success over the last 20 years are afraid of going backwards to go forwards, despite us being well below the standard needed prior to all this change taking place. 

No one knows what happened with Mount exactly, both sides had their PR working overtime. Given the manner in Mount left, the piss weak goodbye video, and then the comments after joining Man Utd, projecting that the club was at fault here is a little premature and naive. Similar applies with Hall, he was set to sign a new deal, then Newcastle came in who he and his family support, and he was off. Based on his interview after joining there's pretty good odds it was something he wanted. Chalobah is caught in the situation of being deemed surplus, it happens in football. We've got better players ahead of him, or at a minimum players who have better fitting attributes for what we want. Maatsen got shopped around because he's dwelled on signing an extension and you can't blame the club for not wanting to lose a £30m asset for nothing in 12 months time, that's bad business no matter which club you are. Gallagher is the only one who's had a raw deal IMO. I want him to stay, he's useful and provides us qualities others don't. He'd be the sole player of the lot I'd shitty at the club for forcing out. 

Not every signing we've made is intended for the now, or even maybe to play for the club. Some are going to be treated as flippable assets down the line, particularly with low cost contracts and the way FPP works. It's a revenue stream that's worth exploring if we're able to manage it well. It may not be popular, we may not get it right 100% of the times, but being able to generate a consistent income stream is important in this day and age. Arguably more so for a club such as ourselves with our stadium limitations, yet loftier expectations. 

No issues calling a spade a spade, and I'm sure if we had picked up more points in the opening 4 rounds opinions would be different, but  we've certainly seen improvement from last season. Whether that's viewed through the eye test, metrics, or both. We have improved. If we could finish our chances, and all too common theme in recent years, we'd be laughing. Jackson alone has SIX missed big chances. We could be playing the best football ever seen, but if we can't put the ball in the net we're going to find it tough going. That's how fine the margins are at this level. Patience is king.

Edited September 13, 2023 by xceleryx
formatting

[ROTG]

2 hours ago, Ham said:

I'm not sure what your point is here. We've also lost crucial academy players. The captain being the main one.  

Great Captain and academy product, shame his body wont let him play 88 PL games on the bounce. 

[Willian Dollar Baby]

1 hour ago, xceleryx said:

Maybe if EVERYONE is fit there may be a fight for minutes irrespective of formation, but the reality is that's unlikely to be the case and certainly isn't right now. Some of these players are also capable across several positions - Lavia can fill both pivot roles, Gallagher is playing deeper so far but can also play that AM role if we wanted. Chukwuemeka is more of an attacking midfielder, leaving Ugo as the only real singular position player as he's very much a DM. 

It can work, just by the nature of the way football inflation is. Players don't necessarily need to play to see their value raise depending on what they were purchased for previously. A players value can immediately raise just by joining a bigger club. 

Santos wouldn't need to play extensively at Forest to see his value climb. Again, just by joining us his market value would've increased because of what we paid and the step up he's made. Then you take into consideration his reputation as a bright talent for his age, his general talent itself, along with his efforts with the Brazilian U/21's, there would be other clubs willing to pay for that. 

Minutes are important, not claimed otherwise, but your examples aren't great ones either. Hudson-Odoi was ruined because of injuries and a lack of adapting afterwards, Ampadu was just never as good as he originally looked and that was shown across his various loans over the years, and Gilmour requires a fair degree of catering. None of these lost value because they didn't play.

You'd have kept Kepa here against his wishes then and took your chances with an unhappy player? Because that's seemingly what you're proposing. We're not going to extend Kepa either way, not unless he was to take a hefty pay cut. Nor is a club likely to pay any sort of sum to sign him when his wages are what they are. So if we're not likely to keep him then the ability to save 12 months worth of wages has appeal. 

Releasing a player costs us money, unless both parties agree to zero compensation being paid. With Ziyech drawing so little interest, a loan basically allowed us to clear his wages for the season and in essence freed us of his contract a season earlier. 

There's nothing to suggest Chalobah can play DM to a Premier League standard to be fair, the one game he did play there for us (against Wolves IIRC), he was atrocious. And sure, he's a solid enough defender across two positions but it's not as if he pulls up trees either. We've got better players ahead of him, whether it's in terms of general ability or by having more useful attributes that serve our system in a greater manner. If he wasn't from the academy I guarantee you people would jump at taking £35m or so for a fringe squad player that doesn't move the needle and has his own injury issues. 

Re positivity. I suppose it all hinges on how you wish you look at the situation as a whole. Not everyone is going to see what's been undertaken from the same angle, and that's entirely fine. But there's also some that are incredibly quick to jump on the doom and gloom train. Whether it's because they don't like the approach taken, they can't wrap their heads around the direction chosen, or are so used to success over the last 20 years are afraid of going backwards to go forwards, despite us being well below the standard needed prior to all this change taking place. 

No one knows what happened with Mount exactly, both sides had their PR working overtime. Given the manner in Mount left, the piss weak goodbye video, and then the comments after joining Man Utd, projecting that the club was at fault here is a little premature and naive. Similar applies with Hall, he was set to sign a new deal, then Newcastle came in who he and his family support, and he was off. Based on his interview after joining there's pretty good odds it was something he wanted. Chalobah is caught in the situation of being deemed surplus, it happens in football. We've got better players ahead of him, or at a minimum players who have better fitting attributes for what we want. Maatsen got shopped around because he's dwelled on signing an extension and you can't blame the club for not wanting to lose a £30m asset for nothing in 12 months time, that's bad business no matter which club you are. Gallagher is the only one who's had a raw deal IMO. I want him to stay, he's useful and provides us qualities others don't. He'd be the sole player of the lot I'd shitty at the club for forcing out. 

Not every signing we've made is intended for the now, or even maybe to play for the club. Some are going to be treated as flippable assets down the line, particularly with low cost contracts and the way FPP works. It's a revenue stream that's worth exploring if we're able to manage it well. It may not be popular, we may not get it right 100% of the times, but being able to generate a consistent income stream is important in this day and age. Arguably more so for a club such as ourselves with our stadium limitations, yet loftier expectations. 

No issues calling a spade a spade, and I'm sure if we had picked up more points in the opening 4 rounds opinions would be different, but  we've certainly seen improvement from last season. Whether that's viewed through the eye test, metrics, or both. We have improved. If we could finish our chances, and all too common theme in recent years, we'd be laughing. Jackson alone has SIX missed big chances. We could be playing the best football ever seen, but if we can't put the ball in the net we're going to find it tough going. That's how fine the margins are at this level. Patience is king.

Going round in circles a bit now so will try to address concisely. 

The squad is massive for a side not in Europe. 23 outfielders and that's not counting Fofana, Sarr or Washington. There's no real disputing that and there will be many players unhappy and pushing their way out in January. Not good for squad morale and not good for player values. 

If Santos spends a season on the bench expecting his value to hold, let alone increase, is optimistic. We tried the talent hoarding strategy before and that was when there were no loan restrictions, it's much harder now. Unlike stocks and shares the owners are experts in, players have thoughts and feelings which mean you can't just buy low, sell high on the scale we are doing. Very quickly players will realise they aren't being purchased to play football but simply to be traded. 

CHO's biggest problem was staying around the first team not playing football rather than going on loan. There's no way he's an £8million footballer injury or not. Ampadu and Gilmour both suffered with poor loans which resulted in them being sold for peanuts. 

Kepa, if a club is willing to pay he can go. No other club would loan out their number 1 with no replacement lined up. It's Real Madrid they can afford it. What would happen if we asked Villa for Martinez on loan? Or Newcastle for Pope? 

Brighton made us pay £25million for Sanchez and he was third choice 😉.

Ziyech - yes that's what I meant. Let him be signed for free. We could easily find an arrangement where the same amount of money changed hands. 

Agree to disagree on Chalobahs quality. I am also seeing a clear pattern of HG players being pushed out for FFP profit so believe there is more to the Mount story than him forcing his way out. As alluded to by others, nearly the whole squad and manager has been turned over in a year. Stinks of a mess behind the scenes. 

Since last year we have definitely improved and have bought good players and a significantly better manager, not disputing that. We've not spent smartly though with an unbalanced squad lacking height, no reliable GK and a severe lack of goals. A fortune spent and glaring weaknesses still obvious. We can play as well as we like between the boxes but that doesn't get you points. 

Realistically who can we rely on to score? 

Sterling will be the top scorer but outside of that I struggle to see who gets them until Nkunku is back.

Jackson looks great but not yet composed enough to be trusted leading the line for a club with our ambitions. Broja scored 6 goals in a whole season up front for Saints. Washington who was on the bench last up cost £18million, is 18 and has 2 first team goals in the Brazilian league.

Mudryk, Madueke and Palmer are young, raw and have 1 PL goal between them. 

Gallagher might get a few but none of the other midfielders are likely to contribute much. Chilwell and James could get maybe 5 each if they can stay fit. Top 4 is looking like an incredibly tough ask. 

Edited September 13, 2023 by Willian Dollar Baby

[Max Fowler]

5 hours ago, Thiago97 said:

I think you are unfairly attempting to divide camps here between fans who are angry, frustrated and concerned - The Anti's if you like - To be compared with the camp you have erected for the positives, optimists and in your view, probably naïve.

This comes back to what myself, and Ham more recently has been saying about the middle ground. It's impossible not to have some concerns with how our owners have approached the last 12 months.

The stark reality is it is just way to early to judge anything by. If we are perpetually in a cycle every window of buying and selling players, then I don't see any Chelsea fan being happy about this. We don't know what the future holds here and how this will play out.

The new owners have got a fair bit wrong, but they have also got some things right too (massively reduced wage bill, managed to pull off large important transfers and bring quality to the club). Either way, it is just to early to judge the new players, new manager and the new owners.  I suspect it will be another 12 months from here before we finally start to see a picture of what the future is for the club under this ownership regime.

We have no option but to be patient with it all. However, being patient and seeing how it plays out, is not blind optimism that everything in the garden smells of beautiful flowers right now.

I wasn't trying to divide into two camps. I was just trying to understand the range of expectations.

For me, it's clear - likely for all of us. If we have close to a repeat of last season's results, which we're currently on course to do, there's no way Poch survives the season, let alone 2-3 seasons.

It may not matter that we have an ex-Spurs manager in charge now, but if the going gets tough you can believe it will start to count. And the manager will be scapegoated by both player and owners.

The fans are largely skeptical and hurt by what's going on and if we don't see results quickly, Poch (and maybe the players) will unfortunately take the majority of the heat bar chants against Clearlake.

There were plenty who said the same early last season under Potter, "you can see our style of play improving!", and yet we didn't get enough results and the players and fans lost faith in the process.

I think Poch has a very hard job on his hands, unless Nkunku comes back firing or we spend correctly in January. His remit may be to develop youngsters but he bluntly says it's to win, win, and win again.

What a breath of fresh air that is after last season. Yet I suspect we may need to be knocking at least around 7th-9th for the wheels to stay on Poch's cart. And I don't know where that leaves us financially.

 

[Max Fowler]

Another comment to add on our clear out -

Clearly there was a lot of deadwood to shift this summer and certain players - Lukaku, Ziyech, etc. had no future at our club. Other players like Mendy commanded a decent price.

But we also have undertaken a systematic selling of players who arguably could have still done a job and didn't absolutely need to be sold - Jorghino, Mount, Kovacic, Havertz, etc.

People will say those players downed tools and we got the right price for them. I am also enjoying laughing at Arsenal for the fact that Havertz is likely to consistently frustrate them.

The point is - we decided not only to ship out the rotting deadwood but many other experienced lads in the process. We still want to sell more of our trusted youth players for their "pure profit".

All this is to say that every other successful club moves on a couple of experienced pros each season, we have got rid of nearly the whole lot of them and this creates more instability to deal with.

I am not saying I wouldn't have sold Havertz and co. for the right price, but if so I would have got a like for like replacement experience-wise. Maddison for Mount. Oshimen for Havertz. Milinković-Savić for Kovacic.

Instead we have essentially gone from Havertz to Jackson, Mount to Palmer, Kovacic to Caicedo, Jorginho to Lavia. 

There is getting rid of deadwood and then there is getting rid of all our experience. To quote Poch:

“We need to be careful. When you play for Chelsea, people expect to win. Yes, we have many young but we need experience also."

"Also with midfield, if you add a 19-year-old is that okay? We need experience in midfield."

As some have suggested, you wonder how comfortable Poch is with the make up of our squad at this moment in time.