Transfer Talk Topic

[Dwmh]

22 minutes ago, thevelourfog said:

that misses the wood for the trees.

Gonna push the analogy way to far - we have replaced a lot of old tree trunk with young saps.  And no one has noticed that we now have a sapling Nursery where we recently had a mature forest and eco system.  Loads of growth potential but the wind is knocking them all down.

24 minutes ago, thevelourfog said:

there is a whole industry dedicated to making and backing up stories about why player X won't sign a new deal or player Y has been sold.

Yes.  In a world where pretty much every major event is spun to imply something completely different (pages 1-28 as I like to say) it is hardly surprising that pages 29-32 (the sports pages) are abused the same way.
It is difficult to understand what is going on, sometimes a simple body count is the best method.
(And in world news if no one is telling you the simple numbers it is because they don't won't you to know)

 

[Rob B]

23 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

Gonna push the analogy way to far - we have replaced a lot of old tree trunk with young saps.  And no one has noticed that we now have a sapling Nursery where we recently had a mature forest and eco system.  Loads of growth potential but the wind is knocking them all down.

Ha this is actually spot on

[Ham]

24 minutes ago, Rob B said:

Ha this is actually spot on

There was a fair bit of rot in the old trunks. 

From small acorns.......

[Dwmh]

11 minutes ago, Ham said:

There was a fair bit of rot in the old trunks. 

From small acorns.......

An Eco system cannot grow.
Rot is fine, it is natural.  To cart off all the dead wood that falls in a Forest is a bad thing.  To log ALL the trees and plant saplings can be a disaster.

And of course it is not just the players, it is 2 sets of coaches, much of the Academy staff, the 3 senior medical staff and most of the club management team.
All the self-protection networks (from Agents, media, rampant you tube wannabe influencers) are gone and new ones need to be built up.

[Rob B]

17 minutes ago, Ham said:

There was a fair bit of rot in the old trunks. 

From small acorns.......

Ash dieback disease 😂

I genuinely believe a top class striker to support Jackson and Nkunku will mask a lot of our ‘youthfulness’ issues in fairness.

[Mark Kelly]

15 minutes ago, Rob B said:

Ash dieback disease 😂

I genuinely believe a top class striker to support Jackson and Nkunku will mask a lot of our ‘youthfulness’ issues in fairness.

A settled defence where players aren't shoehorned in for "reasons" would help too. 

Players played in their preferred positions and a coach not scared of everyone we play would also be an improvement. 

[Thiago97]

1 hour ago, ROTG said:

No idiot here 

just factual that Toney is already 27 and had one good season in the PL which is on par with Patrick Bamford at Leeds. 
 

whereas the club have an already made and proven PL striker who scores a hat full of goals season after season at the top level and is sent to Coventry 

 

signing toney is not even an upgrade on Jackson except he would cost three times as much. Let him go to the arse. 

Well, don’t be surprised  if he goes there and ends up leading them to the title. 
I got no issues with people not wanting Toney through watching him. I do take issue with random comments about  the levels of a player, when they admitted a couple of months back they have not watched him closely. As he hasn’t played for months , you not could not watched him since. So clearly, you are spouting the usual rubbish that ends with you getting called out on a regular basis. 

 

[Chelsea_Matt]

2 hours ago, ROTG said:

No idiot here 

just factual that Toney is already 27 and had one good season in the PL which is on par with Patrick Bamford at Leeds. 
 

whereas the club have an already made and proven PL striker who scores a hat full of goals season after season at the top level and is sent to Coventry 

 

signing toney is not even an upgrade on Jackson except he would cost three times as much. Let him go to the arse. 

You seem fixated on Fat Rom, if I may say. 

It doesn’t matter how good you think he is, or how overrated I think he is. 

His behaviour burned bridges with the club, squad and fans. Even if the club don’t care about us, the first two are definitely true in terms of his behaviour. And he doesn’t want to be here.

Even if the club held him to his deal and recalled him, can you REALLY see it working out?

[ROTG]

3 minutes ago, Chelsea_Matt said:

You seem fixated on Fat Rom, if I may say. 

It doesn’t matter how good you think he is, or how overrated I think he is. 

His behaviour burned bridges with the club, squad and fans. Even if the club don’t care about us, the first two are definitely true in terms of his behaviour. And he doesn’t want to be here.

Even if the club held him to his deal and recalled him, can you REALLY see it working out?

No fascination 

factual the man scores goal he owned by the club, who are desperate for a striker. 

Unfortunately players like Toney do not and will never have a CV like Lukaku. 
 

It’s not my money, and have no problem if the club want to spunk £70m on another PL one season wonder. 
 

[Chelsea_Matt]

2 minutes ago, ROTG said:

No fascination 

factual the man scores goal he owned by the club, who are desperate for a striker. 

Unfortunately players like Toney do not and will never have a CV like Lukaku. 
 

It’s not my money, and have no problem if the club want to spunk £70m on another PL one season wonder. 
 

I’m not talking about Toney. 
 

Can you answer my question?

[ROTG]

15 minutes ago, Chelsea_Matt said:

You seem fixated on Fat Rom, if I may say. 

One can assume you are XXXL person with your continual infatuation will the size of Lukaku. 

[ROTG]

Just now, Chelsea_Matt said:

I’m not talking about Toney. 
 

Can you answer my question?

He Has not burnt any bridges, that your opinion.  Put it like this he came back started to bang in the goals nobody will give a dam.  

bit like the JM conundrum. You could also go back to Graham Le Saux

[boratsbrother]

1 hour ago, Dwmh said:

An Eco system cannot grow.
Rot is fine, it is natural.  To cart off all the dead wood that falls in a Forest is a bad thing.  To log ALL the trees and plant saplings can be a disaster.

And of course it is not just the players, it is 2 sets of coaches, much of the Academy staff, the 3 senior medical staff and most of the club management team.
All the self-protection networks (from Agents, media, rampant you tube wannabe influencers) are gone and new ones need to be built up.

Even in the 21/22 season we finished a whopping 30 points from the top. This season we  are 14 points off the top after 21 games so we'll probably finish somewhere close to that 30 points from top.  The team we got rid of had never been close to a title challenge let alone win it and  it  had zero chance of ever challenging for the title again and was only going to deteriorate. 

We sniggered aaway at Arsenal being happy to be in and around the top four for 20 years yet we were rapidly turning into the new Arsenal. 

The club took the brave decision to take a step or two backwards in order to achieve longer-term success. Of course, one can argue they went about the rebuild too quickly with too many young players, but the other side to that is these players will have a lot more game time and therefore gain more experience more quickly than If they'd been brought along more slowly. In just a couple of years from now we'll have a squad with a lot more experience and with a lot of their peak years still ahead of them.

 

 

 

 

[Chelsea_Matt]

12 minutes ago, ROTG said:

He Has not burnt any bridges, that your opinion.  Put it like this he came back started to bang in the goals nobody will give a dam.  

bit like the JM conundrum. You could also go back to Graham Le Saux

If he hasn’t burned bridges and if he wanted to be here, and was even sorry for his terrible behaviour, why did the club ship him off?

[Dwmh]

25 minutes ago, boratsbrother said:

Even in the 21/22 season we finished a whopping 30 points from the top. This season we  are 14 points off the top after 21 games so we'll probably finish somewhere close to that 30 points from top.  The team we got rid of had never been close to a title challenge let alone win it and  it  had zero chance of ever challenging for the title again and was only going to deteriorate. 

Fair argument (though 74 points were 74 points whether there were 2 great teams and no one else or it is a 5 way PL contest like this year.

I'm not arguing about any individual exit or arrival.  All can be justified individually.
I'm arguing about 13 senior exits in one window and a new squad of 20  (4GKs, 2 known injured etc).

Please tell me -

• Does Brother of Borat think that removing a set of experienced players and replacing them almost entirely with kids + Disasi was a smart move by the board?  A positive step towards a long term better team?
• And if it was a smart move did you think the current level of a 56 point season was expected by the board in advance?  A deliberate step back to precceed a bigger step forward?   Expected/excused or a big failure? 

 

• And finally - what is your timescale before we get back to CL level on current policies?  AND what is Clearlake/TB's time scale.
  (because this is where the mismatch really is, CL/TB work on a 2-3 year timescale as investors & we are 18 months in)

 

I'm also intrigued - if anyone wants to answer it, why did we buy players with a lot of experience in Summer 2022 (Sterling, Koulibaly, Aubameyang and Zakaria & Felix as loanees) if Extreme Rose Pruning has always been the board's plan rather than the accidental outcome?

Edited January 21 by Dwmh

[Rob B]

1 hour ago, Dwmh said:

I'm also intrigued - if anyone wants to answer it, why did we buy players with a lot of experience in Summer 2022 (Sterling, Koulibaly, Aubameyang and Zakaria & Felix as loanees) if Extreme Rose Pruning has always been the board's plan rather than the accidental outcome?

I largely agree with your views on this topic, but I think the above is probably a bit more explainable. 

Firstly,  I think these were bought before the Sporting Directors joined and therefore suspect Tuchel had a lot more influence than Pochettino currently has.  The infra-structure simply wasn’t there. 

That summer was all a bit chaotic from memory, with the takeover only completing in the June,  so we can be forgiven for a few ‘lazy’ purchases eg Koulibaly and Aubameyang. 

Finally, of the five you list, two were loans and one was like £10m, so I see this as very much non-core churn prior to the real strategy being implemented the following summer. 

[My Blood Is Blue]

2 hours ago, Dwmh said:

I'm also intrigued - if anyone wants to answer it, why did we buy players with a lot of experience in Summer 2022 (Sterling, Koulibaly, Aubameyang and Zakaria & Felix as loanees) if Extreme Rose Pruning has always been the board's plan rather than the accidental outcome?

I think @Rob B has answered this, but what I’d add is that, that summer was all about trying to do enough to give ourselves enough to try and compete for that season (which didn’t work). The ‘footballing people’ weren’t in place and the new owners didn’t really know what they had to work with, due to how quickly the process of the takeover had to go through. 

What has happened at our club in the last few years is not normal and has not ever happened before, so we have to accept and expect that we are going to go through massive upheaval and a transition period.

The new owners haven’t got it all right, they haven’t got a lot right, but if we’re being kind/generous, we are only 2 years into their plan and arguably, we’re actually only 18 months in, as I don’t think that summer was approached with any real plan, due to a lack of time and a huge chunk of naivety.

[east lower]

8 hours ago, paulw66 said:

We need a CF much more than we need another wide man. Benzema would transform our attack. If you add Mane, you still have the same problem at CF

Question is do we need a 9? We tried that with Lukaku and that didn’t work out. Forgetting his personal characteristics, the back to goal centre-forward doesn’t work too well for us in the last 6 or so years.

A Mane would suit, I remember watching him give JT and co a torrid time in a CF type role when he was at Southampton. He was quick too, not sure if that’s still the case.

Key thing is he is icy in front of goal. 

[boratsbrother]

Mane was in a noticable decline a few years ago at Liverpool so could only be slower and declined even more by now.  No team wishing to get back to the top four should be interested in signing past it forwards who relied on their pace!

As for those older players we signed in 22. Three  were sbsolute rubbish, Felix was flashy but nothing more.  At £350 K a week, Sterling has hardly set the world on fire here. 

 

[Dwmh]

1 hour ago, Rob B said:

I largely agree with your views on this topic, but I think the above is probably a bit more explainable. 

Firstly,  I think these were bought before the Sporting Directors joined and therefore suspect Tuchel had a lot more influence than Pochettino currently has.  The infra-structure simply wasn’t there. 

That summer was all a bit chaotic from memory, with the takeover only completing in the June,  so we can be forgiven for a few ‘lazy’ purchases eg Koulibaly and Aubameyang. 

Valuation methods.
Certainly the Sporting Directors accelerated the progress and the valuation methods.
I am sure they identified young talent and (as i have pointed out before) their valuation algorithms are likely to undervalue Chelsea players (who were bought using a different algo).

Business Plan
The Creamcakes and TB will certainly have had a business plan before they received the valuation method.  And a timeframe in which they could exit or at least find additional buyers to water down their stake (much as Man U have brought in a value investor, Ratcliffe/INEOS).

So the Summer 2022 Business Practice of gradual change is not the January 2023 Business Practice of Deep Prune and plant saplings.
So I don't think the bid was made with a Deep Prune and Saplings intention, and I doubt a really violent overhaul was being planned in either Jan 2023 or July 2023, it just happened

Absent Manager
You make a good point about neither Potter nor TT being present for Summer 2023.
Wiki:  On 29 May 2023, it was announced Pochettino would be appointed as head coach of Chelsea on 1 July 2023, on a two-year contract with an option to extend for another year

So Poch should certainly have had a lot to say over transactions scouted in April /May but made in August.
Too Cowardly to point out an extra goal keeper did not quite balance the missing 5 squad members and 2 serious injuries?  I know he needed this job.
[It is not just the quality or experience that matters, simple head count matters too - even in Baseball].

In other words I think a partial overhaul was planned but it turned into an out of control disaster
Reasons:

• Some idea to rejuvenate the squad in a controlled way
• 44 points put enormous pressure on to improve
• Player panic - everyone who could walk just ran (the players were much better than the team in 22/23)
• A valuation algorithm that works to identify undervalued purchases but should not be used to identify over valued current assets
• Failure of Poch to intervene for the sake of a squad (or refusal to listen to him)
• Board failure to control the process

A Deliberate Change of Plan?
Some have already stated that the plan is to turn us into Brighton or Dortmund - a player development and sell club.
In which case mid table and survival is the Goal, not proof of failure as all spending goes on potential not present performances.

I think the Summer 2022 window proves that this is not the initial plan.
But perhaps the club has been pushed towards it, perhaps because of the outsized role of the scouting team.

 

 

6 minutes ago, boratsbrother said:

As for those older players we signed in 22. Three  were sbsolute rubbish, Felix was flashy but nothing more.  At £350 K a week, Sterling has hardly set the world on fire here. 

How does the claim they were rubbish change the point that we were buying grownups in 2022?

1 hour ago, My Blood Is Blue said:

What has happened at our club in the last few years is not normal and has not ever happened before, so we have to accept and expect that we are going to go through massive upheaval and a transition period.

Nottingham Forest on Promotion a year or so ago.  And my guess is that although they avaoided relegation they vastly underperformed expectations based on spend (not claiming Forest expertise here eventually they did see the Wood for the Forest).
But rare.

 

1 hour ago, My Blood Is Blue said:

The new owners haven’t got it all right, they haven’t got a lot right, but if we’re being kind/generous, we are only 2 years into their plan and arguably, we’re actually only 18 months in, as I don’t think that summer was approached with any real plan, due to a lack of time and a huge chunk of naivety.

you don't invest £2billion without a plan - even as a single investor, certainly not with coinvestors.
You don't have the kind of track record Clearlake has with naivety.
30% pa average returns requires 2 things - very good plans, and very short time horizons.
30% pa for 4 years is 185% profit.  So the planning timescale was 3 years max and we are half way through it.
 

[My Blood Is Blue]

30 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

you don't invest £2billion without a plan - even as a single investor, certainly not with coinvestors.
You don't have the kind of track record Clearlake has with naivety.
30% pa average returns requires 2 things - very good plans, and very short time horizons.
30% pa for 4 years is 185% profit.  So the planning timescale was 3 years max and we are half way through it.
 

No, of course not, but the plan may well have been, get through the first season, during which time, start bringing in the football people we feel we need and start building preparing the squad for the removal of the older and higher paid players.

Ultimately, none of us know the plan they had/have, but it’s also very possible that they have had to pivot mid plan due to reasons we may or may not be aware of.

[boratsbrother]

26 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

 

 

 

How does the claim they were rubbish change the point that we were buying grownups in 2022?

 

 

You keep going on about the need for experience so I just pointed out that we did buy some and none of them added anything to the team with even Sterling only being average for his huge wages.

Id much rather we continue down the road of buying young, hungry talent than look for tierd old players looking for one last payday. There are of course exceptions with buying older/past their peak  players, with Silva being a prime example, but they are few and far between in this era of such a fast paced PL. 

[My Blood Is Blue]

37 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

Nottingham Forest on Promotion a year or so ago.  And my guess is that although they avaoided relegation they vastly underperformed expectations based on spend (not claiming Forest expertise here eventually they did see the Wood for the Forest).
But rare.

I was referring to the fact the club was essentially frozen as a business and therefore no transfers could be planned, no contract discussions could progress and the owner was made to sell the club unexpectedly and much quicker than would normally be the case.

The owners then had to re-open the business side of the club, get it going again whilst also trying to keep the squad competitive, alongside the fact we lost virtually all the senior back room staff… whether by design of the owners or whether it had to be done for other reasons, we’ll never know.

[Dwmh]

18 minutes ago, boratsbrother said:

You keep going on about the need for experience so I just pointed out that we did buy some and none of them added anything to the team with even Sterling only being average for his huge wages.

Id much rather we continue down the road of buying young, hungry talent than look for tierd old players looking for one last payday. There are of course exceptions with buying older/past their peak  players, with Silva being a prime example, but they are few and far between in this era of such a fast paced PL. 

Good s you have answered my first question - a positive step.
Can you answer Q2 &3 please.

5 hours ago, Dwmh said:

Please tell me -

• Does Brother of Borat think that removing a set of experienced players and replacing them almost entirely with kids + Disasi was a smart move by the board?  A positive step towards a long term better team?
• And if it was a smart move did you think the current level of a 56 point season was expected by the board in advance?  A deliberate step back to precceed a bigger step forward?   Expected/excused or a big failure? 

 

• And finally - what is your timescale before we get back to CL level on current policies?  AND what is Clearlake/TB's time scale.
  (because this is where the mismatch really is, CL/TB work on a 2-3 year timescale as investors & we are 18 months in)

 

[Dwmh]

23 minutes ago, My Blood Is Blue said:

No, of course not, but the plan may well have been, get through the first season, during which time, start bringing in the football people we feel we need and start building preparing the squad for the removal of the older and higher paid players.

Ultimately, none of us know the plan they had/have, but it’s also very possible that they have had to pivot mid plan due to reasons we may or may not be aware of.

My problem with this is I can't see how you can merge 30% returns with 5 year + Business plans.

 

19 minutes ago, My Blood Is Blue said:

I was referring to the fact the club was essentially frozen as a business and therefore no transfers could be planned, no contract discussions could progress and the owner was made to sell the club unexpectedly and much quicker than would normally be the case.

[Just to add I suspect RA had a much earlier  idea of what was about to evolve than anyone else in football.  Plus the work visa issues and increased anti-Russian pressure in UK may also have had an influence on him.  Anyway we seem to have been effectively non-board managed since the CL 2021 trophy.  Contrast that with 2012 after which we bought 75% of the top talent in the world.]

23 minutes ago, My Blood Is Blue said:

The owners then had to re-open the business side of the club, get it going again whilst also trying to keep the squad competitive, alongside the fact we lost virtually all the senior back room staff… whether by design of the owners or whether it had to be done for other reasons, we’ll never know.

Compare RA with similar timing in 2003  He bought some big players (Maka, Crespo), left Ranieri in charge, made a few mistakes (Veron) and the team went from 67 points to 79.  Yet in the previous year we had just added one player (Dalla Bona) and failed to extend contracts (eg Zola).  RA did much more of the same in 2004 having hired Kenyon (and copied his buy list from Man U).
Seems a similar challenge.  And it is not as though Clearlake and TB have not done this kind of thing many times before.

Losing Marina was probably inevitable, losing Cech inexcusable given that the Cech intermediary role with TT would have been crucial.  Losing TT seems a mistake but I suspect as a manager TT found staying even less appealing and leaving even easier than the players.