Transfer Talk Topic

[hallgalley]

Hope Gallagher doesn’t  leave but if everyone is fit does he get in front of Enzo, Caciedo and Lavia ? With Chukwumeka and Palmer also playing a position he can operate in. 
With Casedei, Santos and Ugochuchwu (who is going to the Olympics) also possibles

 

 

[RDCW]

2 hours ago, Mark Kelly said:

I don't pretend to understand exactly how it works but I believe whatever you earn represents twenty percent of what you can get away with spending on new players  so £50m for Gallagher is worth very roughly £200m in transfer fee spend  to the club. 

The maths and the explanation are shonky as hell but it's something like that, I'm sure someone else will be able to explain it better than I can. 

Actually £250m, simply because you can recognise incoming fees immediately on the books, whereas outgoing payments for players can be amortised over 5 years. 

[Sleeping Dave]

4 hours ago, Mark Kelly said:

C'mon Dave, we really haven't sold great players for nothing and replaced them with expensive rubbish. 

I’ve never claimed we did. I claim we have, for a number of years, sold off academy players and replaced them with more expensive players who aren’t any better. 

Not quite the same. 

2 hours ago, thevelourfog said:

I think you do get it, you just don't agree with it so it suits you to act like it doesn't make sense...

…At no point have we adopted a strategy of building the core of the squad around home grown players ... because it's patently ridiculous and would never work, unless you happened to have a once-in-a-generation core of kids come through at the same time. It isn't something any elite club is doing as a matter of course, or has done for well over a decade.

Contradictory no? First off, no I don’t get it. Secondly, you’re right. We have never done it. Third, so how can you conclude it would never work? 

I’ve never said only use academy products. I said use a bulk of them and save the powder for the true stars. But to do this recourse the football management to actually have a long-term vision of the squad and where you want to go, who the manager will be for the foreseeable and what style we will play. None of this is in place so of course, no strategy can work outside of the odd season where all the stars align. Liverpool have arguably been more successful than us over the last decade for doing precisely what I’m advocating. We have not had any strategy, and that has been our main issue. 

The strategy now seems to be to stick the head in the sand and fire any manager who doesn’t turn shit into gold in his first 6 months. That will never, ever work. I can pretty much fucking guarantee that. 

37 minutes ago, RDCW said:

Actually £250m, simply because you can recognise incoming fees immediately on the books, whereas outgoing payments for players can be amortised over 5 years. 

That’s purely paperwork. The value isn’t in the accounting principles but over time. If you sell a player like Gallagher for let’s say £30m and replace him with two nobodies for a total of £50m on long contracts you are in the negative. Even if the “accounts” will show a +£40m profit. 

It’s like peeing in your pants in cold weather. It’s warm at first but… 

[RDCW]

2 hours ago, Sleeping Dave said:

I’ve never claimed we did. I claim we have, for a number of years, sold off academy players and replaced them with more expensive players who aren’t any better. 

Not quite the same. 

Contradictory no? First off, no I don’t get it. Secondly, you’re right. We have never done it. Third, so how can you conclude it would never work? 

I’ve never said only use academy products. I said use a bulk of them and save the powder for the true stars. But to do this recourse the football management to actually have a long-term vision of the squad and where you want to go, who the manager will be for the foreseeable and what style we will play. None of this is in place so of course, no strategy can work outside of the odd season where all the stars align. Liverpool have arguably been more successful than us over the last decade for doing precisely what I’m advocating. We have not had any strategy, and that has been our main issue. 

The strategy now seems to be to stick the head in the sand and fire any manager who doesn’t turn shit into gold in his first 6 months. That will never, ever work. I can pretty much fucking guarantee that. 

That’s purely paperwork. The value isn’t in the accounting principles but over time. If you sell a player like Gallagher for let’s say £30m and replace him with two nobodies for a total of £50m on long contracts you are in the negative. Even if the “accounts” will show a +£40m profit. 

It’s like peeing in your pants in cold weather. It’s warm at first but… 

Only if you assume the replacements are nobodies.

[ROTG]

15 minutes ago, RDCW said:

Only if you assume the replacements are nobodies.

I guess we will find out this season. 

The potter experiment is history. With the so called young squad having a year of PL miles on the clock, therefore top 4 should be a minimum, just like minimum level the previous bunch of players achieved and subsequently replaced by creamcakes because they did fit their profile. 

Edited June 6 by ROTG

[Lump Of Celery]

9 hours ago, RDCW said:

Actually £250m, simply because you can recognise incoming fees immediately on the books, whereas outgoing payments for players can be amortised over 5 years. 

The problem with this is that you have to find that 50m every year for 5 years. Which would involve selling more academy graduates. Who won't have a chance of getting in the team ahead of 250m signings. It's that kind of short term ism that is about to bite us in the backside and has us selling off hotels and training grounds

[Mark Kelly]

12 minutes ago, Lump Of Celery said:

The problem with this is that you have to find that 50m every year for 5 years. Which would involve selling more academy graduates. Who won't have a chance of getting in the team ahead of 250m signings. It's that kind of short term ism that is about to bite us in the backside and has us selling off hotels and training grounds

I think this is the reason we appear to be hoovering up every South American youth prospect so we either use them or cash in on massively when someone else wants them.

There is definitely a method to their madness , whether we agree or not.

[ROTG]

37 minutes ago, Lump Of Celery said:

The problem with this is that you have to find that 50m every year for 5 years. Which would involve selling more academy graduates. Who won't have a chance of getting in the team ahead of 250m signings. It's that kind of short term ism that is about to bite us in the backside and has us selling off hotels and training grounds

The is also the possibility that due to PSR, PL clubs are not willing to pay top dollar for HG from another PL club, resulting in lower fees being offered. IMO this will also apply to experienced players. "e.g. if Connor is up for grabs can't see a MM figure being paid"

This summer is going to be interesting to see how many PL clubs are willing to spend in excess of 50m for a player and what the overall spend is at the end of the window versus previous summer windows. 

[martin1905]

7 hours ago, ROTG said:

I guess we will find out this season. 

The potter experiment is history. With the so called young squad having a year of PL miles on the clock, therefore top 4 should be a minimum, just like minimum level the previous bunch of players achieved and subsequently replaced by creamcakes because they did fit their profile. 

So a 50 point squad is now suddenly a top 4 squad?

Please explain how.

Edited June 6 by martin1905

[boratsbrother]

Points won since Boxing Day to the end of the season was the fourth most in the league. That's a large enough sample size of form and points to make us favourites for top four next season. The bookies have us as top four as well. 

Furthermore,  going by the stats we were actually top four level all season.  it's just that we were not finishing off enough of the chances we were creating and conceeding to many from the percentages of chances we were giving up at the other end. Poch had a moan about it during that early part of the season.

Villa, Spurs, Utd and Newcastle really aren't all that which makes it easier for us too. 

Edited June 6 by boratsbrother

[ROTG]

39 minutes ago, martin1905 said:

So a 50 point squad is now suddenly a top 4 squad?

Please explain how.

I could say i am doing a Martin1905 and going early on my prediction for next season.

However if one uses the logic given by many on here that over the past season that the team was un-coached along with game changers being injured for a majority of the season and not forgetting dropping points against poop teams, the team achieved 63pts. Therefore one would assume with all the game changers back, a new coach in place, and one year of PL miles on the young fellers clocks; winning an additional 4 games and hitting 75pts should be a walk in the park don't you think?

[Ham]

2 minutes ago, ROTG said:

I could say i am doing a Martin1905 and going early on my prediction for next season.

However if one uses the logic given by many on here that over the past season that the team was un-coached along with game changers being injured for a majority of the season and not forgetting dropping points against poop teams, the team achieved 63pts. Therefore one would assume with all the game changers back, a new coach in place, and one year of PL miles on the young fellers clocks; winning an additional 4 games and hitting 75pts should be a walk in the park don't you think?

Yes I think that's a conservative target. 

[xceleryx]

1 hour ago, Mark Kelly said:

I think this is the reason we appear to be hoovering up every South American youth prospect so we either use them or cash in on massively when someone else wants them.

There is definitely a method to their madness , whether we agree or not.

Not just South American prospects but prospects in general. 

We're going to actively continue to invest in young talent even if the larger purpose of them is to merely be sold on in a couple years time. As long as we're picking these player up for reasonable initial fees, then we should be able to make a little back through immediate loans, and then the rest through eventual sales where the odds of their general transfer value rising is likely. 

Players like Casadei, Santos, Hutchinson, Angelo, etc fit that sort of bill.

Where as talent like Kendry Paez for example are more first team orientated signings, as reflected through their higher fee. Can't really apply this method if the initial buy it is excessive. 

[martin1905]

20 minutes ago, ROTG said:

I could say i am doing a Martin1905 and going early on my prediction for next season.

However if one uses the logic given by many on here that over the past season that the team was un-coached along with game changers being injured for a majority of the season and not forgetting dropping points against poop teams, the team achieved 63pts. Therefore one would assume with all the game changers back, a new coach in place, and one year of PL miles on the young fellers clocks; winning an additional 4 games and hitting 75pts should be a walk in the park don't you think?

So, it was never a 50 point squad?

[martin1905]

@ROTG

It's quite a turnaround, so im curious.

According to you we have clueless owners and  'the gruesome twosome' assembling a dolly mixture squad of Championship level players.

Now you claim we should finish top 4. It's a big leap.

[Lump Of Celery]

2 hours ago, Mark Kelly said:

I think this is the reason we appear to be hoovering up every South American youth prospect so we either use them or cash in on massively when someone else wants them.

There is definitely a method to their madness , whether we agree or not.

 

57 minutes ago, xceleryx said:

Not just South American prospects but prospects in general. 

We're going to actively continue to invest in young talent even if the larger purpose of them is to merely be sold on in a couple years time. As long as we're picking these player up for reasonable initial fees, then we should be able to make a little back through immediate loans, and then the rest through eventual sales where the odds of their general transfer value rising is likely. 

Players like Casadei, Santos, Hutchinson, Angelo, etc fit that sort of bill.

Where as talent like Kendry Paez for example are more first team orientated signings, as reflected through their higher fee. Can't really apply this method if the initial buy it is excessive. 

But don't the new loan regulations, which are getting tighter every year, put the mockers on that too. There is a max of 6 unless they are club trained and Under 21. Therefore "hoovering them up" won't work as they won't get into our 1st team and won't go up in value playing in our reserves.

We've already seen Deivid Washington, Les and Casadei suffer in their development this season because we fudged it last year. And this is probably the reason why we will look to cash in on Hutchinson this season.

Realistically we are going to have to start cherry picking elite talents, which carries more risk due to the higher transfer fees. And any hoovering will need to be done domestically at lower age groups.

I did post on this a while back - the players we have actually developed best, and subsequently cashed in on the most, are those that have been with us from the very young age groups - Tammy, Tomori, Guehi, Mount, Livramento etc, we didn't sell them but look where Rice and Musiala have developed to, and then Gallagher, Reece and Colwill would command huge fees

[My Blood Is Blue]

1 hour ago, Lump Of Celery said:

 

But don't the new loan regulations, which are getting tighter every year, put the mockers on that too. There is a max of 6 unless they are club trained and Under 21. Therefore "hoovering them up" won't work as they won't get into our 1st team and won't go up in value playing in our reserves.

We've already seen Deivid Washington, Les and Casadei suffer in their development this season because we fudged it last year. And this is probably the reason why we will look to cash in on Hutchinson this season.

Realistically we are going to have to start cherry picking elite talents, which carries more risk due to the higher transfer fees. And any hoovering will need to be done domestically at lower age groups.

I did post on this a while back - the players we have actually developed best, and subsequently cashed in on the most, are those that have been with us from the very young age groups - Tammy, Tomori, Guehi, Mount, Livramento etc, we didn't sell them but look where Rice and Musiala have developed to, and then Gallagher, Reece and Colwill would command huge fees

Or we'll use Strasbourg to do some of this for us, I would imagine.

[Lump Of Celery]

55 minutes ago, My Blood Is Blue said:

Or we'll use Strasbourg to do some of this for us, I would imagine.

I had meant to add that in, but had to leave my desk. It baffles me why we haven't done that to date with the likes of Les, Deivid Washington, Angelo. We are only 2 years into this process and already face the prospect of having to clear out a load of Loan army deadwood, we still have Casidei, Datro Fofana, Moreira, Slonina, Santos on the books, not to mention seniors like Lukaku and Kepa who we historically have to loan to get wages off the books.

Hopefully some will get domestic loans but as of next year the PL has to fall in line with FIFA loan rules so some of the loans we have done this season won't be possible outside of the 6 spots as they are too old or won't be club trained - the likes of Maatsen, Broja, Matos, Casadei, Mason Burstow

I am assuming that a clubs inability to loan players of those ilk will then impact on their value too, as clubs will know we are desperate to get rid and the players won't want to rot in the reserves.

All seems quite short sighted considering we are regularly told to trust in this carefully considered project, and tbh this is one of the issues that points towards the owners not knowing what they are doing given we have known about the loan rules for some time yet wasted a lot of money on some prospects

[My Blood Is Blue]

30 minutes ago, Lump Of Celery said:

I had meant to add that in, but had to leave my desk. It baffles me why we haven't done that to date with the likes of Les, Deivid Washington, Angelo. We are only 2 years into this process and already face the prospect of having to clear out a load of Loan army deadwood, we still have Casidei, Datro Fofana, Moreira, Slonina, Santos on the books, not to mention seniors like Lukaku and Kepa who we historically have to loan to get wages off the books.

Hopefully some will get domestic loans but as of next year the PL has to fall in line with FIFA loan rules so some of the loans we have done this season won't be possible outside of the 6 spots as they are too old or won't be club trained - the likes of Maatsen, Broja, Matos, Casadei, Mason Burstow

I am assuming that a clubs inability to loan players of those ilk will then impact on their value too, as clubs will know we are desperate to get rid and the players won't want to rot in the reserves.

All seems quite short sighted considering we are regularly told to trust in this carefully considered project, and tbh this is one of the issues that points towards the owners not knowing what they are doing given we have known about the loan rules for some time yet wasted a lot of money on some prospects

Yeah, you're right, we are going to end up with either a massively bloated squad or be forced to sell a bunch of players on the cheap.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see English clubs going a similar route to some other European countries and starting putting a 'B Team' into a lower league, to allow for the stronger youth players to get consistent experience at a good 'grown up' level.

[My Blood Is Blue]

To follow on from the above, the players that we'll want (I presume) to get good level loans for next season are:

• Slonina
• Humphreys
• Santos
• Matos
• Burstow
• Fofana
• Angelo

In addition, we may want to get the following out on loan at a good level as well:

• Gilchrist
• Ugochukwu
• Casadei
• Washington
• Moreira
• Acheampong
• Stutter

[paulw66]

3 minutes ago, My Blood Is Blue said:

To follow on from the above, the players that we'll want (I presume) to get good level loans for next season are:

• Slonina
• Humphreys
• Santos
• Matos
• Burstow
• Fofana
• Angelo

In addition, we may want to get the following out on loan at a good level as well:

• Gilchrist
• Ugochukwu
• Casadei
• Washington
• Moreira
• Acheampong
• Stutter

You can have 6 players out on loan, who are not u21 and club trained.

So from the above, Matos, Gilchrist, Acheampong and Stutter can all go on loan without counting towards the 6.

That leaves 10, of which 6 can be loaned. 4 of those will be released or sold (possibly to Strasbourg) or kept for the first team 

[RDCW]

7 hours ago, Lump Of Celery said:

The problem with this is that you have to find that 50m every year for 5 years. Which would involve selling more academy graduates. Who won't have a chance of getting in the team ahead of 250m signings. It's that kind of short term ism that is about to bite us in the backside and has us selling off hotels and training grounds

Yes. I wasn't getting into the rights and wrongs, just illustrating the short term motivation. 

The mitigation of this accounting policy is that the player whose cost you are amortising continues to have a value to you, so you can realize this value when and if you sell.

[My Blood Is Blue]

37 minutes ago, paulw66 said:

You can have 6 players out on loan, who are not u21 and club trained.

So from the above, Matos, Gilchrist, Acheampong and Stutter can all go on loan without counting towards the 6.

That leaves 10, of which 6 can be loaned. 4 of those will be released or sold (possibly to Strasbourg) or kept for the first team 

In that case, it may look something like this:

• Slonina (LOAN)
• Humphreys (KEPT AT CLUB)
• Santos (LOAN)
• Matos (LOAN - NO IMPACT)
• Burstow (SOLD)
• Fofana (LOAN)
• Angelo (LOAN)
• Gilchrist (LOAN - NO IMPACT)
• Ugochukwu (LOAN)
• Casadei (KEPT AT CLUB)
• Washington (LOAN)
• Moreira (SOLD)
• Acheampong (LOAN- NO IMPACT)
• Stutter (LOAN- NO IMPACT)

That of course no other players out on loan (other than those of the right age and club trained), so we have to find buyers for Lukaku & Kepa otherwise it'll likely mean Ugochukwu or Santos has to stay back and get minimal game time for the season, plus one other.

Ziyech's contract expires this summer anyway, so we don't need to worry about him.

We'll also need to sell Broja or keep him in the squad, now he's 22.

So the Sporting Directors need to sort out some outgoings quite quickly, otherwise we risk having too many stuck at Cobham.

[paulw66]

4 minutes ago, My Blood Is Blue said:

In that case, it may look something like this:

• Slonina (LOAN)
• Humphreys (KEPT AT CLUB)
• Santos (LOAN)
• Matos (LOAN - NO IMPACT)
• Burstow (SOLD)
• Fofana (LOAN)
• Angelo (LOAN)
• Gilchrist (LOAN - NO IMPACT)
• Ugochukwu (LOAN)
• Casadei (KEPT AT CLUB)
• Washington (LOAN)
• Moreira (SOLD)
• Acheampong (LOAN- NO IMPACT)
• Stutter (LOAN- NO IMPACT)

That of course no other players out on loan (other than those of the right age and club trained), so we have to find buyers for Lukaku & Kepa otherwise it'll likely mean Ugochukwu or Santos has to stay back and get minimal game time for the season, plus one other.

Ziyech's contract expires this summer anyway, so we don't need to worry about him.

We'll also need to sell Broja or keep him in the squad, now he's 22.

So the Sporting Directors need to sort out some outgoings quite quickly, otherwise we risk having too many stuck at Cobham.

I could see Santos forcing his way into the squad, especially if Big Les is loaned out. 

[My Blood Is Blue]

4 minutes ago, paulw66 said:

I could see Santos forcing his way into the squad, especially if Big Les is loaned out. 

Yeah, he is one to keep an eye on in pre-season I think. I'm interested to see what our midfield options look like next season. Quite a few questions at the moment.

 

Where does Caicedo play? As the DM or one of the 8s?

Is Lavia going to be fit to play, if not do we need to go into the market for another DM?

Will any of Santos, Ugochukwu or Casadei be part of the squad?

Will Gallagher still be here?

Will a fit Enzo be good enough?

Will Palmer and/or Nkunku be playing as one of the 8s?

Will Chukwuemeka stay fit? If he does, I think he can have a big season for us as one of the 8s in Maresca's system.