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Kepa Arrizabalaga

JaneB

By JaneB
in The Chelsea Forum

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chara

chara

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Michael Tucker said:

I'll be watching.

Me too MT.....the question is not whether Chelsea need a new keeper but who is out there,,available...and with the skill set significantly better to make a difference.

No point in getting a marginally better keeper.

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RDCW
RDCW

Yes. I'm not going  to say that Lazarus is looking anxiously over his shoulder, but Kepa has shown a certain amount of mental strength to come back from where he was.

paulw66
paulw66

Dug a little deeper on this.........we currently sit in 11th place, having scored 36 goals. Of the 10 teams above us, the next lowest scorers are Aston Villa on 48.  Think about that for a second

Michael Tucker
Michael Tucker

Imo, to blame Kepa for our problems is missing the point completely. We don't have a proper holding midfielder, and we don't have a top striker. We need to fix both those glaring problems, before argu

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Michael Tucker

Michael Tucker

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, chara said:

Me too MT.....the question is not whether Chelsea need a new keeper but who is out there,,available...and with the skill set significantly better to make a difference.

No point in getting a marginally better keeper.

This.

I've not been arguing that Kepa is a genius keeper, just that there are other positions that need dealing with first. A proper striker would be nice. A holding midfielder would be nice. 

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chara

chara

Posted
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7 minutes ago, Michael Tucker said:

This.

I've not been arguing that Kepa is a genius keeper, just that there are other positions that need dealing with first. A proper striker would be nice. A holding midfielder would be nice. 

Agree...I know your position MT...the stats speak for themselves..and I hate "stats" arguments...the Chelsea 0 has been the only consistent thing this season.

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paulw66

paulw66

Posted
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On 16/05/2023 at 07:32, Sciatika said:

I suspect the problem some people have with Kepa is the original price tag.

Well, yes, we paid for an elite GK, and we didn't get one. Had we paid what we paid for Mendy, I am not sure they'd be much discussion.

On 16/05/2023 at 08:07, Michael Tucker said:

Did anyone here pay it out of their own pockets? No? Then they're kidding themselves. Let's move on for goodness sake.

I am not sure that argument is really relevant.

Fans don't want to see us pay over the odds for players, not because of their own opportunity cost, but the opportunity cost of the club, and potential other signings. 

On 16/05/2023 at 11:06, Bob Singleton said:

Indeed, and that's hardly his fault for that!

Sure, but as above, fans just want to see value for money. You pay 72m for a GK, you expect the world's best (or top few)

16 hours ago, Michael Tucker said:

This.

I've not been arguing that Kepa is a genius keeper, just that there are other positions that need dealing with first. A proper striker would be nice. A holding midfielder would be nice. 

And I agree with this.

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RDCW

RDCW

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4 hours ago, FrankLampard8 said:

Fair play to him. I think we all know that long term he isn't the answer but he has done incredibly well to put together a workable season when all was crumbling and his career looked all but dead. 

Yes. I'm not going  to say that Lazarus is looking anxiously over his shoulder, but Kepa has shown a certain amount of mental strength to come back from where he was.

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Ham

Ham

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27 minutes ago, Mark Kelly said:

Personally , and this may be considered sacrilege , I voted him player of the season , and previously I thought he was done. 

Personally I though Enzo's 4 months were better than anyone else's 9 months. 

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Mark Kelly

Mark Kelly

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Ham said:

Personally I though Enzo's 4 months were better than anyone else's 9 months. 

I get that and they were but Kepa coming form the place he came from had the most personal growth and barely anyone else appeared to be trying as hard as he did to turn things around so for that , he got my vote , he had his Doh! moments though ...

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chrisb

chrisb

Posted
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3 hours ago, Mark Kelly said:

Personally , and this may be considered sacrilege , I voted him player of the season , and previously I thought he was done. 

Think it’s time for you to borrow ROTG’s coat….

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xceleryx

xceleryx

Posted
Posted

@Holymoly, basically another statistical showcase which puts Kepa in the mix as one of the better keepers this season. 

For anyone wondering what PSxG and all the terms mean, I'll quote the original creators post for additional context to the data shared. 

Quote

 

 

This post is just to show some analysis on goalkeeper performance in the premier league using Post-Shot xG (PSxG).

What is Post-Shot xG (PSxG)?

Post-shot xG is a metric that takes into account multiple factors of a shot (position it is taken from, placement of the shot on the goal, power of shot, type of shot) and determines how likely it is that that shot would have gone in based on data of previous similar shots from professional games. It differs from xG because it takes into account things that happen after the shot. A shot from distance would have a low xG (like 0.02), but if it is hit hard and placed in the top corner it might have a high post-shot xG (0.5). A tap-in from within the 6-yard box could have a high xG(0.7) but if it is hit over the goal the PSxG would be 0. This way we can use PSxG to analyze goalkeepers shot-stopping performance as it more accuractely captures the quality of the shot, while xG only captures the quality of the opportunity. The main issue with just using PSxG is that goalkeepers on bad defenses see much more action, making it easier for them to accumulate larger differences (+ or -) between Goals Conceded and PSxG faced over the course of a season. So one thing we can use instead is % of PSxG Conceded to see the difference a goalkeeper makes per PSxG conceded.

What is % of PSxG Conceded?

This is the percentage of goals the player concedes per goal they are expected to conceded. Calculated like this: Goals Conceded (excluding Own Goals) divided by PSxG (then all multiplied by 100 to convert to a %). A player with a score of 100% is performing at the average professional goalkeeper level; they are conceding exactly as many goals as expected. Lower percentages are better as you are conceding less than expected. Higher percentages are worse.

Some Thoughts on the Data

Alisson lives up to his reputation as one of the best shot stoppers in the league as he comes out on top. Leno proves to be a great signing as he has a spectacular first season at Fulham. Kepa had a bit of a redemption to previous poor seasons, as his numbers look great this year. Pickford's and Neto's performances in net were likely key to their team's survival. David de Gea's high profile errors and top quality saves appear to balance each other out as he is very close to average. Ramsdale's shot stopping comes out to be slightly below average despite the praise he has received. Ederson, while being part of one of the best defenses, is one of the worst shot-stoppers in the league. The 3 youngest keepers were also the 3 worst, with Bazunu appearing to have not been ready for the premier league as he put up the worst score across the big 5 European leagues. The lack in a solid shot stopper likely contributed to the relegation of Southampton, Leeds, and Leicester.

My Criteria

I did exclude all own goals from the calculation, even if the goalkeeper conceded it themselves. I only counted keepers who conceded at least 15 PSxG in the list. That number was somewhat arbitrary but was chosen because it seemed like a natural cutoff point in the data across the leagues to only see keepers who faced a notable amount of action.

Credit

All data was obtained from fbref.com

Let me know if you have questions or if you found this interesting and I could post some more tables from the other big leagues across Europe.

 

 

 

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Sleeping Dave

Sleeping Dave

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mark Kelly said:

I think , unless there is an underlying reason the most pointless loan move of all time , we will now need to go out and get another keeper and have Kepa back once Tortoise is repaired as he's never going to get picked over him.

He's played his last game for Chelsea. Nothing pointless about that, time to celebrate! Next season he'll be sold if he is open to lower his wage demand. 

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